Sat, Dec 23, 2023·Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles
Calgary Flames 3, Los Angeles Kings 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 17 | 112 | 113 | 332 |
| LAK | 213 | 213 | 18 | 534 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:01LAKQuinton ByfieldAssists: Drew Doughty, Anze Kopitar · Slap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 2:47CGYRasmus AnderssonAssists: Mikael Backlund, Andrew Mangiapane · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–1
- P1 15:20LAKPierre-Luc DuboisAssists: Jordan Spence, Phillip Danault · Tip-in, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 4:01CGYBlake ColemanSHAssists: Yegor Sharangovich · Wrist, 0.26 xG2–2
- P2 6:28LAKAlex LaferriereAssists: Drew Doughty, Mikey Anderson · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–3
- P2 9:57LAKTrevor MooreGWGAssists: Matt Roy · Snap, 0.09 xG2–4
- P3 7:18CGYBlake ColemanPPAssists: Adam Ruzicka, MacKenzie Weegar · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–4
- P3 19:00LAKQuinton ByfieldENAssists: Adrian Kempe, Anze Kopitar · Wrist, 0.75 xG3–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 13:19CGYChris Tanev: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:12CGYChris Tanev: Holding2 min
- P2 7:18LAKDrew Doughty: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:23CGYNoah Hanifin: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:55LAKAdrian Kempe: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:48LAKAdrian Kempe: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 5:44LAKCarl Grundstrom: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 11:10LAKAndreas Englund: Interference2 min
- P3 16:16CGYMartin Pospisil: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubois won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestLindholm – Greer – Sharangovich6:41
xG 0.29–0.13 (68%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
- Mangiapane – Dube – Ruzicka5:17
xG 0.21–0.35 (37%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
- Backlund – Coleman – Huberdeau8:21
xG 0.19–0.65 (23%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Kadri – Pospisil – Zary6:20
xG 0.09–0.82 (9%)attempts 4–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Gilbert – DeSimone8:49
xG 0.19–0.16 (55%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Weegar – Andersson11:29
xG 0.15–0.88 (14%)attempts 5–23goals 1–2
- Tanev – Hanifin13:35
xG 0.51–1.63 (24%)attempts 11–17goals 0–1
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestDubois – Kaliyev – Laferriere8:21
xG 1.14–0.21 (85%)attempts 12–14goals 1–0
- Danault – Fiala – Moore8:40
xG 0.71–0.04 (94%)attempts 17–2goals 1–0
- Lewis – Grundstrom – Lizotte5:28
xG 0.17–0.16 (52%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Kopitar – Kempe – Byfield9:16
xG 0.25–0.35 (42%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestRoy – Moverare8:55
xG 1.48–0.14 (91%)attempts 21–13goals 0–1
- Englund – Roy4:51
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Englund – Spence6:11
xG 0.38–0.20 (66%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).