Sat, Dec 23, 2023·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
San Jose Sharks 4, Vancouver Canucks 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 25 | 19 | 111 | 425 |
| VAN | 25 | 311 | 210 | 726 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:34VANAndrei KuzmenkoAssists: Ilya Mikheyev, Elias Pettersson · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 6:51VANAndrei KuzmenkoPPAssists: J.T. Miller, Elias Pettersson · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–2
- P1 13:32SJSMikael GranlundAssists: Anthony Duclair, Mario Ferraro · Tip-in, 0.04 xG1–2
- P1 16:22SJSTomas HertlAssists: Filip Zadina, Mario Ferraro · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–2
- P2 6:03VANNils AmanAssists: Teddy Blueger · Snap, 0.24 xG2–3
- P2 8:36VANSam LaffertyAssists: Ian Cole, Conor Garland · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–4
- P2 11:08SJSFabian ZetterlundAssists: Mario Ferraro, Mikael Granlund · Snap, 0.14 xG3–4
- P2 19:13VANDakota JoshuaGWGAssists: Conor Garland, Teddy Blueger · Snap, 0.18 xG3–5
- P3 13:16SJSJacob MacDonaldAssists: Filip Zadina, Jan Rutta · Snap, 0.20 xG4–5
- P3 15:43VANPius SuterAssists: Quinn Hughes, J.T. Miller · Tip-in, 0.04 xG4–6
- P3 19:47VANQuinn HughesENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.53 xG4–7
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:37SJSMike Hoffman: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 1:09SJSNikita Okhotiuk: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:59VANDakota Joshua: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:30SJSLuke Kunin: High sticking2 min
- P2 12:19VANTeddy Blueger: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:00VANFilip Hronek: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:30SJSJack Studnicka: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hertl won the faceoff against Miller
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestHertl – Zadina – Eklund10:17
xG 0.56–0.15 (79%)attempts 9–7goals 2–1
- Granlund – Duclair – Zetterlund9:26
xG 0.70–0.33 (68%)attempts 12–10goals 1–1
- Hoffman – Bailey – Kunin7:22
xG 0.01–0.10 (10%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Vlasic – Thrun6:28
xG 0.06–0.10 (38%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Rutta – Thrun3:15
xG 0.00–0.11 (1%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Rutta – Okhotiuk6:52
xG 0.27–0.42 (39%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestBlueger – Joshua – Garland10:28
xG 0.43–0.17 (71%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Lafferty – Suter – Aman5:13
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Pettersson – Mikheyev – Kuzmenko8:35
xG 0.77–0.85 (47%)attempts 14–11goals 1–3
- Miller – Boeser – Hoglander8:28
xG 0.31–0.41 (43%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Juulsen10:32
xG 0.51–0.03 (95%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Cole – Hronek2:55
xG 0.16–0.03 (84%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Myers – Zadorov12:43
xG 0.23–0.58 (28%)attempts 9–11goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).