Wed, Dec 27, 2023·Prudential Center, Newark
Columbus Blue Jackets 3, New Jersey Devils 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 19 | 18 | 111 | 01 | 329 |
| NJD | 18 | 010 | 215 | 12 | 435 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:39CBJJake BeanAssists: Brendan Gaunce, Alexandre Texier · Snap, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 9:55NJDOndrej PalatAssists: Erik Haula, Dawson Mercer · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 8:28CBJJustin DanforthAssists: David Jiricek, Adam Fantilli · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–1
- P3 15:51NJDDawson MercerAssists: Simon Nemec · Slap, 0.07 xG2–2
- P3 17:34CBJEgor ChinakhovUnassisted · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–2
- P3 18:35NJDLuke HughesAssists: Jack Hughes, Dawson Mercer · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–3
- OT 2:12NJDTimo MeierGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.23 xG3–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 7:46NJDOndrej Palat: High sticking2 min
- P2 16:24CBJCole Sillinger: Interference2 min
- P2 19:56NJDMichael McLeod: High sticking2 min
- P3 0:54CBJEgor Chinakhov: High sticking2 min
- P3 3:07NJDLuke Hughes: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:12CBJBrendan Gaunce: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McLeod won the faceoff against Voronkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestGaunce – Olivier – Texier8:15
xG 0.43–0.15 (74%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Marchenko – Voronkov – Chinakhov9:10
xG 0.43–0.37 (53%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Bemstrom – Johnson – Sillinger10:55
xG 0.24–0.57 (29%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Danforth – Fantilli10:44
xG 0.32–0.81 (28%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudbranson – Jiricek3:38
xG 0.28–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Gudbranson – Provorov3:02
xG 0.16–0.01 (92%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Severson – Provorov12:35
xG 0.26–0.26 (51%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestMeier – McLeod – Mercer11:18
xG 0.86–0.27 (76%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Palat – Hischier – Holtz6:49
xG 0.38–0.01 (96%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Bratt – Hughes11:51
xG 0.83–0.52 (62%)attempts 20–10goals 0–1
- Haula – Palat – Hischier2:41
xG 0.28–0.01 (96%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMarino – Hughes13:31
xG 0.79–0.30 (72%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Miller – Bahl8:30
xG 0.39–0.02 (96%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Siegenthaler – Nemec14:41
xG 0.92–0.82 (53%)attempts 17–22goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).