Wed, Dec 27, 2023·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Seattle Kraken 2, Calgary Flames 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 18 | 05 | 18 | 221 |
| CGY | 17 | 013 | 018 | 138 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:24SEAKailer YamamotoAssists: Vince Dunn, Adam Larsson · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 8:09CGYNazem KadriPPAssists: Yegor Sharangovich · Poke, 0.24 xG1–1
- P3 6:00SEAAlexander WennbergGWGAssists: Jared McCann, Will Borgen · Snap, 0.09 xG2–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 8:02SEABrian Dumoulin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 8:31CGYMikael Backlund: Holding2 min
- P1 17:43CGYDennis Gilbert: Slashing2 min
- P2 11:02SEAWill Borgen: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:52SEAJared McCann: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:50SEABrandon Tanev: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lindholm won the faceoff against Beniers
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Tatar – Beniers11:37
xG 0.66–0.42 (61%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Shore – Yamamoto – Kartye5:30
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Gourde – Bjorkstrand – Tolvanen10:59
xG 0.44–0.64 (41%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
- Wennberg – McCann – Tanev7:28
xG 0.15–0.47 (24%)attempts 3–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestOleksiak – Borgen14:31
xG 0.75–0.49 (60%)attempts 16–12goals 1–0
- Dumoulin – Evans12:23
xG 0.52–0.40 (57%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
- Larsson – Dunn15:05
xG 0.47–1.04 (31%)attempts 15–21goals 1–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestLindholm – Mangiapane – Sharangovich9:58
xG 0.65–0.39 (63%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
- Kadri – Pospisil – Zary10:09
xG 0.53–0.37 (59%)attempts 19–7goals 0–0
- Backlund – Coleman – Huberdeau12:06
xG 0.36–0.26 (58%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Greer – Dube – Duehr5:00
xG 0.07–0.36 (15%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Andersson16:13
xG 1.31–0.38 (77%)attempts 24–17goals 0–0
- Tanev – Hanifin17:56
xG 0.48–0.50 (49%)attempts 15–16goals 0–1
- Gilbert – DeSimone8:09
xG 0.16–0.69 (19%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − SEA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).