Wed, Dec 27, 2023·Honda Center, Anaheim
Vegas Golden Knights 2, Anaheim Ducks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 010 | 213 | 09 | 232 |
| ANA | 411 | 17 | 08 | 526 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:23ANABrett LeasonAssists: Cam Fowler, Adam Henrique · Tip-in, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 8:23ANAJamie DrysdaleAssists: Mason McTavish, Ryan Strome · Snap, 0.08 xG0–2
- P1 11:38ANAFrank VatranoGWGAssists: Mason McTavish, Ilya Lyubushkin · Snap, 0.13 xG0–3
- P1 12:18ANATroy TerryAssists: Alex Killorn, Trevor Zegras · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–4
- P2 7:23VGKAlec MartinezAssists: Paul Cotter · Snap, 0.13 xG1–4
- P2 12:34VGKMark StonePPAssists: William Karlsson, Jonathan Marchessault · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–4
- P2 17:45ANABrett LeasonAssists: Mason McTavish, Cam Fowler · Snap, 0.16 xG2–5
Penalties (6)
- P2 1:07ANAUrho Vaakanainen: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:33ANAFrank Vatrano: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 12:53ANATrevor Zegras: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:55ANAMason McTavish: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 14:09ANAJakob Silfverberg: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:01VGKJack Eichel: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Henrique won the faceoff against Eichel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestMarchessault – Stephenson – Dorofeyev7:46
xG 0.94–0.53 (64%)attempts 15–8goals 0–1
- Kolesar – Roy – Howden6:54
xG 0.24–0.05 (84%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Stone – Barbashev – Eichel12:09
xG 0.30–0.15 (66%)attempts 15–11goals 0–1
- Karlsson – Amadio – Cotter7:27
xG 0.34–0.51 (40%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Whitecloud9:01
xG 0.67–0.42 (61%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Pietrangelo – Hutton10:36
xG 0.65–0.42 (61%)attempts 15–8goals 0–1
- McNabb – Hutton4:52
xG 0.21–0.14 (61%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestStrome – Vatrano – McTavish11:10
xG 0.95–0.36 (73%)attempts 15–15goals 2–1
- Killorn – Terry – Zegras11:38
xG 0.34–0.17 (67%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Silfverberg – Carrick – Johnston4:41
xG 0.28–0.18 (61%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Henrique – Jones – Leason10:47
xG 0.32–1.03 (23%)attempts 8–18goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestLyubushkin – Mintyukov11:16
xG 0.78–0.60 (57%)attempts 11–15goals 2–0
- Fowler – Vaakanainen13:45
xG 0.33–0.39 (46%)attempts 10–14goals 1–0
- LaCombe – Drysdale13:29
xG 0.76–0.96 (44%)attempts 15–18goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).