Thu, Dec 28, 2023·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Montréal Canadiens 3, Carolina Hurricanes 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 27 | 012 | 12 | 321 |
| CAR | 215 | 17 | 29 | 531 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:35CARAndrei SvechnikovAssists: Brent Burns, Sebastian Aho · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 12:40CARJesper FastAssists: Sebastian Aho, Brent Burns · Snap, 0.31 xG0–2
- P1 13:51MTLMitchell StephensAssists: Michael Pezzetta, Jayden Struble · Backhand, 0.05 xG1–2
- P1 19:56MTLMike MathesonPPAssists: Sean Monahan, Cayden Primeau · Wrap-around, 0.05 xG2–2
- P2 1:29CARJesper FastAssists: Stefan Noesen, Jack Drury · Slap, 0.12 xG2–3
- P3 0:25MTLJosh AndersonUnassisted · Backhand, 0.13 xG3–3
- P3 13:51CARAndrei SvechnikovGWGAssists: Brett Pesce, Sebastian Aho · Slap, 0.09 xG3–4
- P3 19:41CARAndrei SvechnikovENAssists: Sebastian Aho, Brent Burns · Wrist, 0.38 xG3–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:01CARBrady Skjei: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:14MTLJayden Struble: Interference2 min
- P1 19:25CARAndrei Svechnikov: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 4:19CARBrady Skjei: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:40CARMichael Bunting: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:08MTLJoel Armia: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:01MTLCole Caufield: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Monahan won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestGallagher – Armia – Dvorak10:39
xG 0.64–0.19 (77%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
- Stephens – Pezzetta – Ylonen5:21
xG 0.26–0.02 (94%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Suzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský13:01
xG 0.63–0.74 (46%)attempts 17–13goals 0–2
- Anderson – Monahan – Evans9:27
xG 0.22–0.64 (25%)attempts 6–19goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHarris – Struble14:05
xG 0.76–0.01 (98%)attempts 16–13goals 1–0
- Guhle – Barron11:51
xG 0.19–0.39 (33%)attempts 9–9goals 0–3
- Savard – Matheson15:55
xG 0.72–1.22 (37%)attempts 15–29goals 1–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestFast – Noesen – Drury9:07
xG 0.41–0.24 (63%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Staal – Martinook – Jarvis10:27
xG 0.34–0.21 (62%)attempts 16–6goals 0–1
- Teravainen – Aho – Svechnikov12:14
xG 0.32–0.55 (37%)attempts 11–14goals 2–0
- Bunting – Necas – Kotkaniemi7:57
xG 0.06–0.38 (14%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Slavin12:31
xG 0.85–0.37 (70%)attempts 18–11goals 3–0
- Orlov – Chatfield13:18
xG 0.30–0.47 (39%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Skjei – Pesce16:08
xG 0.58–0.84 (41%)attempts 17–18goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).