Thu, Dec 28, 2023·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Philadelphia Flyers 4, Vancouver Canucks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 013 | 37 | 15 | 425 |
| VAN | 07 | 010 | 110 | 127 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 15:03PHIEgor ZamulaPPAssists: Tyson Foerster, Joel Farabee · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–0
- P2 16:24PHISean WalkerGWGAssists: Owen Tippett, Travis Konecny · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–0
- P2 17:09PHIJoel FarabeeAssists: Bobby Brink · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–0
- P3 0:25VANTeddy BluegerAssists: Dakota Joshua, Quinn Hughes · Snap, 0.17 xG3–1
- P3 5:01PHIGarnet HathawaySHAssists: Ryan Poehling · Wrist, 0.16 xG4–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 1:21VANNils Hoglander: Tripping2 min
- P1 2:48PHIJoel Farabee: Holding2 min
- P2 6:06PHIJoel Farabee: Interference2 min
- P2 14:18VANTyler Myers: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 4:51VANNoah Juulsen: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:51PHICam Atkinson: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:51PHICam Atkinson: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:21VANBrock Boeser: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Blueger
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestCouturier – Konecny – Tippett9:14
xG 0.50–0.30 (62%)attempts 10–3goals 1–1
- Deslauriers – Laughton – Hathaway5:11
xG 0.24–0.17 (59%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Poehling – Farabee – Brink8:35
xG 0.25–0.36 (41%)attempts 4–11goals 1–0
- Deslauriers – Hathaway – Poehling2:29
xG 0.07–0.19 (28%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Seeler – Walker15:18
xG 0.67–0.68 (49%)attempts 13–18goals 0–0
- Sanheim – York16:07
xG 0.12–0.41 (22%)attempts 9–13goals 0–1
- Ristolainen – Zamula13:35
xG 0.20–0.51 (28%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestPettersson – Mikheyev – Kuzmenko9:19
xG 0.41–0.11 (79%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Blueger – Joshua – Garland9:33
xG 0.36–0.15 (70%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Miller – Boeser – Suter4:05
xG 0.19–0.13 (59%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Lafferty – Suter – Aman4:56
xG 0.00–0.01 (21%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Hronek4:29
xG 0.54–0.03 (94%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Myers – Hughes4:09
xG 0.31–0.07 (82%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Hronek – Hughes12:00
xG 0.27–0.14 (66%)attempts 14–3goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).