Thu, Dec 28, 2023·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Los Angeles Kings 2, Vegas Golden Knights 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 07 | 113 | 114 | 234 |
| VGK | 19 | 213 | 010 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:38VGKJack EichelAssists: Ivan Barbashev, Mark Stone · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 2:27VGKMichael AmadioAssists: Pavel Dorofeyev, Brayden McNabb · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–2
- P2 13:07LAKAnze KopitarAssists: Adrian Kempe, Vladislav Gavrikov · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–2
- P2 14:42VGKWilliam KarlssonGWGAssists: Paul Cotter, Alex Pietrangelo · Snap, 0.19 xG1–3
- P3 18:01LAKTrevor MooreAssists: Anze Kopitar, Carl Grundstrom · Snap, 0.05 xG2–3
Penalties (2)
- P2 18:15VGKJonathan Marchessault: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:17VGKBrett Howden: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danault won the faceoff against Karlsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestDubois – Kaliyev – Laferriere12:31
xG 0.59–0.32 (65%)attempts 19–8goals 0–1
- Lewis – Grundstrom – Lizotte7:39
xG 0.17–0.07 (71%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Kopitar – Kempe – Byfield12:50
xG 0.50–0.43 (53%)attempts 16–8goals 1–1
- Danault – Fiala – Moore14:00
xG 0.50–0.75 (40%)attempts 25–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAnderson – Spence2:18
xG 0.17–0.05 (79%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Doughty – Englund3:42
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Doughty – Spence2:34
xG 0.13–0.03 (79%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestKarlsson – Marchessault – Cotter13:43
xG 0.46–0.32 (59%)attempts 10–21goals 0–0
- Kolesar – Roy – Howden7:05
xG 0.17–0.09 (65%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Stone – Barbashev – Eichel13:26
xG 0.34–0.35 (49%)attempts 11–16goals 1–0
- Stephenson – Amadio – Dorofeyev10:07
xG 0.25–0.91 (22%)attempts 5–23goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPietrangelo – Hutton5:02
xG 0.46–0.07 (87%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Hague – Whitecloud4:16
xG 0.24–0.00 (98%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Martinez – Hague11:38
xG 0.46–0.48 (49%)attempts 9–23goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).