Thu, Dec 28, 2023·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Edmonton Oilers 5, San Jose Sharks 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 412 | 110 | 08 | 530 |
| SJS | 07 | 012 | 06 | 025 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:00EDMRyan McLeodGWGAssists: Zach Hyman, Evan Bouchard · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 10:15EDMZach HymanAssists: Connor McDavid, Darnell Nurse · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–0
- P1 14:55EDMEvan BouchardAssists: Mattias Ekholm, Connor Brown · Slap, 0.03 xG3–0
- P1 17:32EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Warren Foegele, Ryan McLeod · Wrist, 0.21 xG4–0
- P2 9:07EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Cody Ceci, Darnell Nurse · Tip-in, 0.04 xG5–0
Penalties (4)
- P2 3:05SJSMario Ferraro: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 3:21EDMZach Hyman: Interference2 min
- P3 1:42EDMDarnell Nurse: High sticking2 min
- P3 16:31EDMLeon Draisaitl: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Granlund won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid12:32
xG 1.27–0.33 (79%)attempts 18–6goals 2–0
- Brown – Erne – Hamblin9:12
xG 0.29–0.12 (71%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Draisaitl – Foegele – McLeod11:15
xG 0.72–0.82 (47%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Kane – Janmark – Ryan9:37
xG 0.17–0.32 (35%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Bouchard17:48
xG 1.59–0.57 (73%)attempts 25–9goals 3–0
- Kulak – Desharnais15:10
xG 0.39–0.52 (43%)attempts 9–17goals 0–0
- Ceci – Nurse14:22
xG 0.57–0.88 (39%)attempts 15–15goals 2–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestKunin – Studnicka – Eklund3:25
xG 0.31–0.04 (90%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Hertl – Zadina – Eklund9:06
xG 0.66–0.47 (59%)attempts 10–8goals 0–2
- Bailey – Carpenter – Barabanov7:34
xG 0.15–0.10 (60%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Hoffman – Granlund – Zetterlund4:29
xG 0.11–0.06 (64%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAddison – Okhotiuk13:43
xG 0.67–0.29 (70%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Burroughs – Ferraro16:06
xG 0.92–1.21 (43%)attempts 14–22goals 0–4
- Rutta – Thrun15:17
xG 0.40–0.93 (30%)attempts 7–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).