Fri, Dec 29, 2023·Amerant Bank Arena, Sunrise
New York Rangers 3, Florida Panthers 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 010 | 214 | 110 | 334 |
| FLA | 111 | 215 | 17 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:45FLAEvan RodriguesAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Niko Mikkola · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 7:12FLASam ReinhartAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Carter Verhaeghe · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–2
- P2 13:23NYRArtemi PanarinAssists: Alexis Lafrenière, Ryan Lindgren · Snap, 0.14 xG1–2
- P2 14:36NYRWill CuylleAssists: K'Andre Miller · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–2
- P2 17:07FLASam ReinhartPPAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Matthew Tkachuk · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–3
- P3 12:15NYRMika ZibanejadSHAssists: Chris Kreider · Slap, 0.15 xG3–3
- P3 13:37FLACarter VerhaegheGWGAssists: Gustav Forsling, Matthew Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 6:10FLAKevin Stenlund: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:03NYRVincent Trocheck: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:52FLAAnton Lundell: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:51NYRBraden Schneider: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 11:23NYRAlexis Lafrenière: Illegal check to head2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestTrocheck – Panarin – Lafrenière14:17
xG 1.34–0.43 (76%)attempts 20–12goals 1–0
- Bonino – Brodzinski – Cuylle6:37
xG 0.46–0.19 (71%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Wheeler – Goodrow – Vesey2:15
xG 0.12–0.03 (80%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Kreider – Zibanejad – Panarin2:47
xG 0.03–0.23 (11%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGustafsson – Schneider9:44
xG 0.76–0.48 (61%)attempts 14–12goals 0–1
- Fox – Lindgren12:24
xG 0.66–0.53 (56%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
- Fox – Miller3:14
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBarkov – Reinhart – Rodrigues11:35
xG 0.33–0.17 (66%)attempts 15–8goals 1–0
- Verhaeghe – Bennett – Tkachuk10:20
xG 0.65–0.77 (46%)attempts 15–13goals 1–0
- Lockwood – Luostarinen – Lundell3:30
xG 0.11–0.23 (31%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Stenlund – Lomberg – Lockwood3:35
xG 0.00–0.19 (2%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMontour – Mikkola16:46
xG 1.22–0.35 (78%)attempts 20–9goals 2–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Montour2:04
xG 0.07–0.16 (32%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Kulikov8:34
xG 0.29–0.88 (25%)attempts 13–17goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).