Fri, Dec 29, 2023·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
New Jersey Devils 6, Ottawa Senators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 29 | 211 | 210 | 630 |
| OTT | 16 | 08 | 113 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:47OTTDrake BathersonAssists: Brady Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–1
- P1 13:10NJDJack HughesPPAssists: Luke Hughes, Jesper Bratt · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P1 19:52NJDJesper BrattPPAssists: Jack Hughes, Luke Hughes · Snap, 0.18 xG2–1
- P2 7:17NJDDawson MercerGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.38 xG3–1
- P2 14:47NJDTyler ToffoliAssists: Jesper Bratt, Jack Hughes · Snap, 0.17 xG4–1
- P3 3:59NJDBrendan SmithAssists: Nico Hischier, Jesper Bratt · Wrist, 0.18 xG5–1
- P3 13:25OTTJacob Bernard-DockerAssists: Erik Brannstrom, Angus Crookshank · Slap, 0.02 xG5–2
- P3 17:28NJDLuke HughesAssists: Alexander Holtz, Chris Tierney · Snap, 0.05 xG6–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 7:13NJDTimo Meier: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 12:34OTTDrake Batherson: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 13:50OTTJacob Bernard-Docker: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 19:40OTTClaude Giroux: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 1:38NJDDawson Mercer: High sticking2 min
- P2 8:44OTTMark Kastelic: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:43NJDErik Haula: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:52NJDBrendan Smith: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hischier won the faceoff against Stützle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestToffoli – Bratt – Hughes8:21
xG 0.60–0.27 (69%)attempts 10–6goals 1–1
- Haula – Palat – Hischier10:05
xG 0.32–0.03 (92%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Tierney – Bastian – Holtz4:27
xG 0.13–0.06 (69%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Meier – McLeod – Mercer12:17
xG 0.37–0.55 (40%)attempts 14–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMarino – Hughes12:03
xG 0.88–0.34 (72%)attempts 14–9goals 2–0
- Siegenthaler – Nemec14:53
xG 0.60–0.32 (65%)attempts 18–10goals 0–0
- Siegenthaler – Bahl2:22
xG 0.02–0.12 (14%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestBatherson – Tkachuk – Stützle2:29
xG 0.30–0.18 (62%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Tarasenko – Batherson – Stützle9:37
xG 0.30–0.22 (58%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Kastelic – Kelly – Smejkal6:42
xG 0.24–0.17 (58%)attempts 7–13goals 0–1
- Kubalik – Crookshank – Greig7:05
xG 0.11–0.14 (44%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestChychrun – Zub2:00
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Sanderson – Zub12:01
xG 0.65–0.57 (53%)attempts 15–6goals 1–1
- Brannstrom – Bernard-Docker12:46
xG 0.68–0.66 (51%)attempts 13–18goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).