Fri, Dec 29, 2023·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Chicago Blackhawks 4, Dallas Stars 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 28 | 07 | 214 | 00 | 429 |
| DAL | 112 | 216 | 14 | 13 | 535 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:56CHITyler JohnsonAssists: Anthony Beauvillier, Jason Dickinson · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–0
- P1 10:56CHICole GuttmanAssists: Lukas Reichel, Connor Murphy · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–0
- P1 11:49DALRoope HintzPPAssists: Joe Pavelski, Jamie Benn · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–1
- P2 9:03DALJoe PavelskiAssists: Nils Lundkvist, Thomas Harley · Tip-in, 0.16 xG2–2
- P2 9:23DALRoope HintzAssists: Jason Robertson · Snap, 0.09 xG2–3
- P3 2:10DALJamie BennAssists: Wyatt Johnston, Evgenii Dadonov · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–4
- P3 8:58CHIJason DickinsonAssists: Cole Guttman, Alex Vlasic · Slap, 0.11 xG3–4
- P3 17:24CHITyler JohnsonPPAssists: Philipp Kurashev, Kevin Korchinski · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–4
- OT 4:52DALRoope HintzGWGAssists: Jason Robertson, Miro Heiskanen · Tip-in, 0.21 xG4–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 11:33CHIJarred Tinordi: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 12:28CHITyler Johnson: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:06DALRadek Faksa: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:33CHIAnthony Beauvillier: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 6:56DALJoe Pavelski: High sticking2 min
- P3 16:59DALEvgenii Dadonov: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Seguin won the faceoff against Bedard
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestJohnson – Dickinson – Beauvillier3:41
xG 0.45–0.11 (80%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Johnson – Blackwell – Donato3:04
xG 0.13–0.06 (69%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Foligno – Kurashev – Bedard9:41
xG 0.47–0.64 (42%)attempts 8–14goals 0–2
- Entwistle – Guttman – Reichel4:27
xG 0.15–0.32 (31%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMurphy – Vlasic16:19
xG 0.80–0.34 (70%)attempts 15–13goals 3–0
- Murphy – Korchinski3:25
xG 0.51–0.32 (62%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Murphy – Phillips2:01
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Hintz – Robertson12:47
xG 1.08–0.23 (83%)attempts 18–11goals 2–0
- Duchene – Seguin – Marchment10:16
xG 0.53–0.31 (63%)attempts 16–10goals 0–1
- Smith – Faksa – Steel6:46
xG 0.21–0.24 (46%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Benn – Dadonov – Johnston11:23
xG 0.60–0.82 (42%)attempts 15–14goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestLundkvist – Harley11:08
xG 0.63–0.40 (61%)attempts 17–9goals 1–0
- Hakanpää – Lindell14:10
xG 0.76–0.57 (57%)attempts 21–11goals 1–1
- Heiskanen – Lundkvist2:10
xG 0.13–0.03 (80%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).