Fri, Dec 29, 2023·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Colorado Avalanche 2, St. Louis Blues 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 14 | 07 | 112 | 223 |
| STL | 110 | 07 | 012 | 129 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:11COLRyan JohansenAssists: Jonathan Drouin, Josh Manson · Backhand, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 16:31STLRobert ThomasSHUnassisted · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–1
- P3 17:06COLDevon ToewsGWGAssists: Valeri Nichushkin, Ryan Johansen · Slap, 0.03 xG2–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:37COLJosh Manson: Roughing2 min
- P1 7:41COLMiles Wood: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:03STLKasperi Kapanen: Holding2 min
- P2 10:25STLTorey Krug: Interference2 min
- P2 18:59COLKurtis MacDermid: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 7:56STLMackenzie MacEachern: Penalty shot throwing object at puck0 min
- P3 9:07COLMiles Wood: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thomas won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestJohansen – Wood – Drouin4:43
xG 0.17–0.05 (76%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- MacKinnon – Drouin – Rantanen8:24
xG 0.31–0.25 (56%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Cogliano – O'Connor – Meyers6:37
xG 0.03–0.04 (47%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Johansen – Wood – Nichushkin2:21
xG 0.09–0.12 (43%)attempts 4–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestManson – Byram14:04
xG 0.52–0.28 (65%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Johnson – Malinski9:23
xG 0.13–0.35 (27%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Toews – Makar14:58
xG 0.29–0.62 (32%)attempts 11–16goals 1–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSchenn – Kapanen – Neighbours7:26
xG 0.40–0.13 (75%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Buchnevich – Kyrou – Thomas14:06
xG 0.45–0.22 (68%)attempts 17–9goals 0–0
- Sundqvist – MacEachern – Blais4:13
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Hayes – Saad – Toropchenko9:01
xG 0.31–0.22 (58%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLeddy – Parayko18:28
xG 0.76–0.54 (59%)attempts 15–14goals 0–0
- Scandella – Perunovich7:20
xG 0.18–0.03 (85%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Faulk – Krug15:33
xG 0.43–0.45 (49%)attempts 19–15goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).