Fri, Dec 29, 2023·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Philadelphia Flyers 1, Seattle Kraken 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 111 | 04 | 012 | 01 | 128 |
| SEA | 05 | 09 | 111 | 14 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:21PHITravis KonecnySHAssists: Scott Laughton, Travis Sanheim · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P3 5:45SEAVince DunnPPAssists: Oliver Bjorkstrand, Alexander Wennberg · Slap, 0.02 xG1–1
- OT 2:35SEAJustin SchultzGWGAssists: Oliver Bjorkstrand, Yanni Gourde · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 9:41SEAJustin Schultz: High sticking2 min
- P1 15:59PHIJoel Farabee: High sticking2 min
- P2 16:13SEATomas Tatar: Interference2 min
- P3 5:26PHITyson Foerster: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 12:20SEATye Kartye: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Wennberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestCouturier – Konecny – Tippett10:03
xG 0.52–0.11 (82%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Poehling – Farabee – Brink12:52
xG 0.49–0.55 (47%)attempts 13–16goals 0–0
- Atkinson – Frost – Foerster9:09
xG 0.16–0.33 (33%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Deslauriers – Laughton – Hathaway7:40
xG 0.01–1.01 (1%)attempts 3–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Ristolainen – Zamula14:10
xG 0.59–0.60 (50%)attempts 14–15goals 0–0
- Sanheim – York15:43
xG 0.35–0.42 (45%)attempts 12–19goals 0–0
- Seeler – Walker16:16
xG 0.43–1.17 (27%)attempts 15–21goals 0–0
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Tatar – Beniers14:08
xG 0.86–0.17 (84%)attempts 21–10goals 0–0
- McCann – Yamamoto – Kartye2:25
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Burakovsky – Yamamoto – Kartye4:26
xG 0.22–0.18 (55%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Burakovsky – Wennberg – Tanev5:00
xG 0.09–0.12 (42%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Dunn17:49
xG 0.95–0.22 (81%)attempts 25–12goals 0–0
- Oleksiak – Borgen14:49
xG 0.73–0.65 (53%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Schultz – Dumoulin13:09
xG 0.50–0.48 (51%)attempts 16–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).