Sat, Dec 30, 2023·TD Garden, Boston
New Jersey Devils 2, Boston Bruins 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 19 | 16 | 018 | 233 |
| BOS | 013 | 411 | 17 | 531 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:03NJDNico HischierPPAssists: Tyler Toffoli, Jack Hughes · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P2 1:11NJDLuke HughesAssists: Tyler Toffoli, Jesper Bratt · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–0
- P2 5:35BOSJake DeBruskAssists: Brad Marchand, Charlie Coyle · Backhand, 0.20 xG2–1
- P2 12:51BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Brandon Carlo, Morgan Geekie · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–2
- P2 15:39BOSDavid PastrnakPPGWGAssists: Jake DeBrusk, Charlie McAvoy · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–3
- P2 17:14BOSKevin ShattenkirkAssists: Matt Grzelcyk, Charlie Coyle · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–4
- P3 16:49BOSKevin ShattenkirkPPAssists: Brad Marchand, David Pastrnak · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–5
Penalties (4)
- P1 5:57BOSKevin Shattenkirk: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 18:29BOSDavid Pastrnak: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:02NJDKevin Bahl: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 15:49NJDKevin Bahl: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Coyle won the faceoff against Hischier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestToffoli – Bratt – Hughes12:28
xG 0.54–0.36 (60%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- McLeod – Mercer – Holtz3:27
xG 0.03–0.01 (83%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Tierney – Bastian – Holtz4:15
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Haula – Palat – Hischier12:24
xG 0.22–0.82 (21%)attempts 8–14goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestHughes – Nemec4:44
xG 0.80–0.05 (94%)attempts 12–1goals 0–0
- Smith – Siegenthaler3:13
xG 0.30–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Siegenthaler – Bahl2:39
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Frederic – Merkulov9:27
xG 0.52–0.14 (79%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Pastrnak – Zacha – Geekie13:48
xG 0.54–0.18 (75%)attempts 14–10goals 1–1
- Marchand – Coyle – DeBrusk10:46
xG 0.65–0.45 (59%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Heinen – Lauko – Beecher6:32
xG 0.03–0.05 (40%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLindholm – Carlo16:30
xG 0.44–0.23 (66%)attempts 9–16goals 1–0
- Grzelcyk – McAvoy3:30
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- McAvoy – Lohrei13:56
xG 0.66–0.52 (56%)attempts 15–13goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).