Sat, Dec 30, 2023·Amerant Bank Arena, Sunrise
Montréal Canadiens 1, Florida Panthers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 05 | 13 | 011 | 119 |
| FLA | 04 | 111 | 311 | 426 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:05FLAEetu LuostarinenPPAssists: Evan Rodrigues, Sam Bennett · Tip-in, 0.15 xG0–1
- P2 7:01MTLCole CaufieldPPAssists: Nick Suzuki, Mike Matheson · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–1
- P3 7:34FLAEetu LuostarinenPPGWGAssists: Aaron Ekblad, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Backhand, 0.17 xG1–2
- P3 15:26FLASam BennettAssists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Carter Verhaeghe · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–3
- P3 17:13FLACarter VerhaegheENAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Aaron Ekblad · Wrist, 0.62 xG1–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:53MTLMichael Pezzetta: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:53FLAWilliam Lockwood: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:31FLACarter Verhaeghe: High sticking2 min
- P2 2:22MTLNick Suzuki: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 5:31FLAEvan Rodrigues: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 7:52MTLMichael Pezzetta: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 6:42MTLJoel Armia: Roughing removing opponents helmet2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Monahan won the faceoff against Bennett
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- Anderson – Monahan – Evans11:47
xG 0.25–0.21 (55%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Stephens – Pezzetta – Ylonen4:45
xG 0.11–0.26 (29%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Gallagher – Armia – Dvorak9:36
xG 0.24–0.45 (35%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Suzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský12:35
xG 0.33–0.53 (38%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Guhle – Barron14:19
xG 0.18–0.47 (28%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Savard – Matheson13:47
xG 0.62–1.09 (36%)attempts 16–19goals 0–0
- Harris – Struble16:58
xG 0.15–0.76 (16%)attempts 10–13goals 0–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBarkov – Reinhart – Rodrigues11:00
xG 1.07–0.35 (76%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Stenlund – Lomberg – Lockwood9:34
xG 0.31–0.06 (83%)attempts 16–6goals 0–0
- Verhaeghe – Bennett – Tkachuk9:57
xG 0.24–0.17 (59%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Cousins – Luostarinen – Lundell12:48
xG 0.35–0.36 (49%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkman-Larsson – Kulikov12:14
xG 1.30–0.18 (88%)attempts 16–11goals 1–0
- Ekblad – Forsling13:19
xG 0.59–0.40 (60%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
- Kulikov – Forsling2:14
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).