Sat, Dec 30, 2023·Capital One Arena, Washington
Nashville Predators 3, Washington Capitals 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 211 | 013 | 010 | 02 | 2 | 336 |
| WSH | 113 | 14 | 010 | 02 | 0 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:44NSHLuke EvangelistaAssists: Dante Fabbro, Tommy Novak · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 6:55NSHRoman JosiPPAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–0
- P1 10:25WSHBeck MalenstynAssists: Nic Dowd, Trevor van Riemsdyk · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–1
- P2 14:59WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Dylan Strome, Aliaksei Protas · Slap, 0.07 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. WSH Evgeny Kuznetsov stopped
- 2. NSH Gustav Nyquist scored
- 3. WSH Alex Ovechkin stopped
- 4. NSH Ryan O'Reilly scored
Penalties (9)
- P1 6:03WSHAlex Ovechkin: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 12:46NSHMichael McCarron: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:15NSHMichael McCarron: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:15WSHTom Wilson: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:00WSHJoel Edmundson: Roughing2 min
- P1 0:00NSHJeremy Lauzon: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:56NSHLuke Evangelista: Holding2 min
- P3 4:01WSHConnor McMichael: Holding2 min
- P3 19:00NSHLuke Schenn: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dowd won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestNovak – Smith – Evangelista7:16
xG 0.70–0.14 (84%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- McCarron – Trenin – Tomasino9:29
xG 0.53–0.19 (73%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Sissons – Sherwood – Parssinen10:00
xG 0.31–0.22 (58%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Nyquist – O'Reilly – Forsberg12:06
xG 0.68–1.01 (40%)attempts 17–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Fabbro15:08
xG 0.76–0.13 (85%)attempts 23–10goals 1–0
- Lauzon – Carrier13:37
xG 1.00–0.64 (61%)attempts 20–13goals 0–1
- McDonagh – Josi2:04
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestMantha – McMichael – Protas9:44
xG 0.80–0.34 (70%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Strome11:11
xG 0.49–0.43 (53%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
- Wilson – Phillips – Lapierre6:31
xG 0.05–0.26 (15%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Dowd – Aube-Kubel – Malenstyn11:27
xG 0.39–0.86 (31%)attempts 8–19goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Bear3:18
xG 0.27–0.11 (71%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Jensen – van Riemsdyk8:25
xG 0.13–0.15 (47%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Carlson – Edmundson15:57
xG 1.02–1.10 (48%)attempts 19–23goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).