Sun, Dec 31, 2023·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Philadelphia Flyers 3, Calgary Flames 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 18 | 011 | 212 | 331 |
| CGY | 011 | 110 | 312 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:44PHIRasmus RistolainenAssists: Ryan Poehling, Joel Farabee · Snap, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 18:21CGYMikael BacklundAssists: Andrew Mangiapane, Dennis Gilbert · Snap, 0.19 xG1–1
- P3 7:29CGYDennis GilbertAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Blake Coleman · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P3 14:29CGYNazem KadriAssists: Andrew Mangiapane · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–3
- P3 16:36PHIBobby BrinkAssists: Cam Atkinson, Travis Konecny · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–3
- P3 17:42CGYBlake ColemanENGWGAssists: Andrew Mangiapane · Wrist, 0.78 xG2–4
- P3 18:38PHIEgor ZamulaAssists: Travis Konecny, Morgan Frost · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 5:07CGYAndrew Mangiapane: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:50CGYMartin Pospisil: Boarding2 min
- P2 2:48PHIEgor Zamula: Holding2 min
- P2 9:36CGYBlake Coleman: High sticking2 min
- P3 12:54PHISamuel Ersson: Delaying game equipment2 min
- P3 14:19CGYMacKenzie Weegar: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Couturier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestCouturier – Konecny – Foerster3:33
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Atkinson – Frost – Foerster7:30
xG 0.58–0.50 (54%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Laughton – Hathaway – Tippett2:00
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Deslauriers – Laughton – Hathaway5:37
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRistolainen – Zamula10:49
xG 0.62–0.55 (53%)attempts 13–15goals 1–0
- Ristolainen – Sanheim2:22
xG 0.00–0.20 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Seeler – Walker12:14
xG 0.21–0.65 (24%)attempts 6–14goals 0–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBacklund – Coleman – Mangiapane12:13
xG 0.81–0.28 (74%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Huberdeau – Lindholm – Sharangovich11:45
xG 0.66–0.56 (54%)attempts 19–8goals 0–1
- Greer – Dube – Ruzicka6:03
xG 0.08–0.02 (80%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Kadri – Pospisil – Zary8:00
xG 0.28–0.34 (45%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAndersson – Gilbert10:55
xG 0.87–0.40 (68%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Weegar – Oesterle11:52
xG 0.60–0.35 (63%)attempts 20–8goals 0–0
- Tanev – Hanifin13:29
xG 0.46–0.39 (54%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).