Sun, Dec 31, 2023·Ball Arena, Denver
San Jose Sharks 1, Colorado Avalanche 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 97% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 03 | 16 | 02 | 111 |
| COL | 110 | 011 | 212 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:58COLMikko RantanenPPAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Valeri Nichushkin · Snap, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 16:53SJSTomas HertlPPAssists: Mikael Granlund, Calen Addison · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P3 16:31COLValeri NichushkinGWGAssists: Jack Johnson, Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P3 18:53COLJosh MansonENAssists: Devon Toews, Ryan Johansen · Wrist, 0.34 xG1–3
Penalties (12)
- P1 5:55SJSAlexander Barabanov: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 0:51COLMiles Wood: Interference2 min
- P2 2:40SJSAnthony Duclair: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:28COLJosh Manson: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:28SJSLuke Kunin: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:10SJSFabian Zetterlund: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:45COLJonathan Drouin: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 3:07SJSCalen Addison: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 4:21SJSMikael Granlund: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:44SJSAnthony Duclair: High sticking2 min
- P3 16:58COLCale Makar: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:53SJSTomas Hertl: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Hertl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestHoffman – Granlund – Zetterlund10:53
xG 0.35–0.28 (55%)attempts 10–16goals 0–0
- Duclair – Bailey – Carpenter2:14
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Hertl – Zadina – Eklund4:43
xG 0.11–0.17 (39%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Bailey – Carpenter – Zadina4:50
xG 0.07–0.17 (30%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Rutta – Thrun4:02
xG 0.08–0.06 (59%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Rutta – Emberson3:06
xG 0.02–0.01 (75%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Emberson – Addison2:02
xG 0.09–0.07 (53%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMacKinnon – Drouin – Rantanen14:06
xG 0.96–0.11 (89%)attempts 25–3goals 0–0
- Johansen – Wood – Nichushkin8:46
xG 0.31–0.10 (75%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Cogliano – O'Connor – Meyers9:39
xG 0.32–0.14 (70%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- MacDermid – Olofsson – Kiviranta3:48
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar14:58
xG 0.85–0.26 (77%)attempts 22–7goals 0–0
- Manson – Byram10:40
xG 0.52–0.17 (75%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Girard – Byram3:43
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 97% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).