Tue, Jan 2, 2024·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Chicago Blackhawks 0, Nashville Predators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 05 | 08 | 08 | 021 |
| NSH | 116 | 09 | 211 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:16NSHGustav NyquistPPGWGAssists: Roman Josi, Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P3 15:23NSHRyan O'ReillyPPAssists: Filip Forsberg, Gustav Nyquist · Slap, 0.29 xG0–2
- P3 19:27NSHLuke EvangelistaENAssists: Luke Schenn · Wrist, 0.56 xG0–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 4:43CHIBrett Seney: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P1 19:37NSHJeremy Lauzon: Interference2 min
- P2 17:10CHINick Foligno: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 17:10CHINick Foligno: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:10NSHJeremy Lauzon: Fighting5 min
- P2 0:00NSHJuuso Parssinen: High sticking2 min
- P3 11:43NSHRyan O'Reilly: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:53CHIBoris Katchouk: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 15:12CHIConnor Murphy: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dickinson won the faceoff against Sissons
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- Donato – Seney – Katchouk5:51
xG 0.20–0.20 (50%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Blackwell – Seney – Katchouk2:09
xG 0.01–0.07 (13%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Entwistle – Guttman – Reichel8:02
xG 0.29–0.38 (43%)attempts 4–14goals 0–0
- Beauvillier – Kurashev – Bedard7:03
xG 0.01–0.17 (6%)attempts 2–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestZaitsev – Korchinski11:39
xG 0.41–0.22 (65%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Crevier11:09
xG 0.49–0.45 (52%)attempts 10–19goals 0–0
- Tinordi – Murphy9:51
xG 0.15–0.17 (47%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestNyquist – O'Reilly – Forsberg9:07
xG 0.38–0.04 (91%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Novak – Smith – Evangelista4:34
xG 0.43–0.10 (81%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- McCarron – Trenin – Tomasino9:42
xG 0.68–0.37 (65%)attempts 16–12goals 0–0
- Novak – Sherwood – Evangelista3:01
xG 0.14–0.08 (64%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLauzon – Carrier13:07
xG 0.49–0.01 (99%)attempts 17–4goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Schenn12:53
xG 0.49–0.35 (58%)attempts 17–10goals 0–0
- Josi – Fabbro13:30
xG 0.60–0.66 (47%)attempts 21–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).