Tue, Jan 2, 2024·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Philadelphia Flyers 2, Edmonton Oilers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 011 | 214 | 012 | 237 |
| EDM | 113 | 211 | 212 | 536 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:55EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Vincent Desharnais · Snap, 0.20 xG0–1
- P2 8:12EDMZach HymanAssists: Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl · Backhand, 0.15 xG0–2
- P2 11:10PHITravis KonecnyAssists: Joel Farabee, Sean Couturier · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–2
- P2 17:00PHIMarc StaalAssists: Travis Konecny, Joel Farabee · Snap, 0.10 xG2–2
- P2 19:05EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsPPGWGAssists: Connor McDavid, Zach Hyman · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–3
- P3 1:27EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Connor McDavid, Cody Ceci · Slap, 0.06 xG2–4
- P3 11:19EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Connor McDavid, Zach Hyman · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 6:10EDMWarren Foegele: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:20PHIEgor Zamula: Holding2 min
- P1 17:39EDMConnor McDavid: Holding2 min
- P1 18:26PHITravis Konecny: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:09EDMBrett Kulak: Interference2 min
- P2 11:58EDMMattias Janmark: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:31PHICam Atkinson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 4:02PHITyson Foerster: Slashing2 min
- P3 7:43EDMCody Ceci: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Draisaitl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- Couturier – Konecny – Farabee6:05
xG 0.49–0.46 (52%)attempts 5–8goals 2–1
- Frost – Brink – Foerster2:24
xG 0.00–0.12 (1%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Poehling – Brink – Foerster2:01
xG 0.06–0.19 (25%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Tippett – Frost – Brink3:55
xG 0.01–0.34 (3%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRistolainen – Zamula8:40
xG 0.41–0.19 (68%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Staal – Sanheim3:13
xG 0.46–0.40 (53%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Seeler – Ristolainen2:07
xG 0.27–0.31 (46%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestDraisaitl – Foegele – McLeod8:37
xG 1.08–0.63 (63%)attempts 12–10goals 0–1
- Kane – Janmark – Ryan8:15
xG 0.50–0.19 (72%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Brown – Erne – Hamblin4:39
xG 0.07–0.04 (62%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Hyman – Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid9:33
xG 0.64–0.88 (42%)attempts 7–8goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestKulak – Desharnais12:08
xG 0.49–0.27 (64%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Ceci – Nurse15:02
xG 0.91–0.71 (56%)attempts 17–12goals 0–1
- Ekholm – Bouchard12:34
xG 0.95–0.94 (50%)attempts 12–9goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).