Tue, Jan 2, 2024·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Ottawa Senators 3, Vancouver Canucks 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 09 | 112 | 217 | 338 |
| VAN | 515 | 06 | 15 | 626 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:14VANIan ColeAssists: Noah Juulsen, Ilya Mikheyev · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 12:39VANPius SuterAssists: Sam Lafferty, Tyler Myers · Wrist, 0.24 xG0–2
- P1 16:34VANElias PetterssonAssists: Pius Suter · Wrist, 0.22 xG0–3
- P1 16:58VANJ.T. MillerGWGAssists: Nikita Zadorov, Brock Boeser · Tip-in, 0.04 xG0–4
- P1 17:53VANElias PetterssonPPAssists: J.T. Miller, Quinn Hughes · Snap, 0.06 xG0–5
- P2 1:31OTTClaude GirouxAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Jake Sanderson · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–5
- P3 0:37OTTVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Claude Giroux, Tim Stützle · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–5
- P3 17:29OTTVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Drake Batherson, Thomas Chabot · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–5
- P3 17:42VANPius SuterUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–6
Penalties (3)
- P1 17:21OTTZack MacEwen: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 17:21OTTZack MacEwen: Misconduct10 min
- P2 11:44VANSam Lafferty: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Miller won the faceoff against Norris
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestNorris – Batherson – Tkachuk5:55
xG 0.35–0.01 (98%)attempts 13–2goals 0–0
- Kubalik – Kelly – Greig8:36
xG 0.12–0.27 (30%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Giroux – Tarasenko – Stützle6:18
xG 0.37–0.61 (38%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Tarasenko – Batherson – Stützle8:16
xG 0.08–0.63 (12%)attempts 4–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestChabot – Chychrun4:28
xG 0.23–0.02 (91%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Chabot – Zub2:37
xG 0.01–0.14 (9%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Sanderson – Zub12:48
xG 0.19–0.50 (27%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestLafferty – Suter – Hoglander5:17
xG 0.60–0.13 (82%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Blueger – Joshua – Garland10:24
xG 0.41–0.16 (71%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Miller – Boeser – Suter4:13
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 2–0
- Miller – Boeser – Mikheyev3:16
xG 0.30–0.23 (57%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHronek – Hughes20:09
xG 1.89–0.78 (71%)attempts 27–17goals 1–1
- Myers – Zadorov15:47
xG 0.63–0.49 (57%)attempts 9–26goals 3–0
- Cole – Juulsen15:52
xG 0.23–0.10 (69%)attempts 17–8goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).