Tue, Jan 2, 2024·Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Los Angeles Kings 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 011 | 211 | 17 | 329 |
| LAK | 06 | 013 | 012 | 031 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:13TORWilliam NylanderGWGAssists: Tyler Bertuzzi, John Tavares · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–0
- P2 8:14TORCalle JarnkrokAssists: Tyler Bertuzzi, Max Domi · Backhand, 0.24 xG2–0
- P3 19:00TORWilliam NylanderENUnassisted · Backhand, 0.78 xG3–0
Penalties (9)
- P1 13:12TORMax Domi: Cross checking2 min
- P1 17:10LAKAndreas Englund: Cross checking2 min
- P2 6:03LAKPierre-Luc Dubois: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:03TORTyler Bertuzzi: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:17LAKAndreas Englund: Fighting5 min
- P3 9:17TORSimon Benoit: Fighting5 min
- P3 10:53LAKAlex Laferriere: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:13LAKDrew Doughty: Slashing2 min
- P3 16:41TORJohn Tavares: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMarner – Matthews – Knies10:01
xG 0.55–0.27 (67%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Tavares – Bertuzzi – Nylander10:09
xG 0.39–0.36 (52%)attempts 10–19goals 1–0
- Gregor – Kampf – McMann8:55
xG 0.12–0.13 (48%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Jarnkrok – Domi – Robertson5:24
xG 0.02–0.74 (2%)attempts 2–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcCabe – Benoit13:05
xG 0.59–0.21 (73%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Giordano – Liljegren10:33
xG 0.47–0.30 (61%)attempts 8–16goals 1–0
- McCabe – Liljegren2:35
xG 0.05–0.04 (54%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestKopitar – Moore – Byfield5:34
xG 0.85–0.04 (96%)attempts 20–1goals 0–0
- Lewis – Anderson-Dolan – Lizotte7:45
xG 0.12–0.08 (60%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Danault – Fiala – Grundstrom4:20
xG 0.14–0.15 (49%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Danault – Fiala – Moore6:47
xG 0.32–0.40 (44%)attempts 8–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDoughty – Anderson15:57
xG 0.48–0.23 (68%)attempts 20–10goals 0–0
- Gavrikov – Roy15:15
xG 1.07–0.83 (56%)attempts 23–16goals 0–1
- Englund – Spence10:01
xG 0.19–0.28 (41%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).