Thu, Jan 4, 2024·TD Garden, Boston
Pittsburgh Penguins 6, Boston Bruins 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 416 | 111 | 18 | 635 |
| BOS | 211 | 28 | 110 | 529 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:41BOSBrad MarchandAssists: David Pastrnak, Charlie McAvoy · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 5:04PITDrew O'ConnorAssists: Kris Letang, Lars Eller · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 6:17PITRyan GravesAssists: Sidney Crosby, Rickard Rakell · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
- P1 6:39BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Hampus Lindholm, Morgan Geekie · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–2
- P1 7:21PITJake GuentzelAssists: Sidney Crosby, Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–2
- P1 15:58PITLars EllerAssists: Drew O'Connor, Erik Karlsson · Slap, 0.13 xG4–2
- P2 6:38PITJeff CarterAssists: Kris Letang, Bryan Rust · Wrist, 0.21 xG5–2
- P2 9:51BOSMorgan GeekieAssists: David Pastrnak, Charlie McAvoy · Wrist, 0.06 xG5–3
- P2 19:24BOSJake DeBruskAssists: Brandon Carlo, Morgan Geekie · Tip-in, 0.06 xG5–4
- P3 3:08BOSBrad MarchandSHAssists: Charlie Coyle · Wrist, 0.12 xG5–5
- P3 11:19PITSidney CrosbyPPGWGAssists: Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.04 xG6–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 7:52PITPierre-Olivier Joseph: High sticking2 min
- P2 4:36BOSBrandon Carlo: Cross checking2 min
- P2 13:21PITKris Letang: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:38BOSCharlie McAvoy: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 11:12BOSCharlie McAvoy: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Coyle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Rakell – Guentzel12:58
xG 1.22–0.36 (77%)attempts 14–12goals 2–1
- Eller – Puustinen – O'Connor6:09
xG 0.52–0.21 (72%)attempts 7–4goals 2–1
- Carter – Harkins – Acciari8:10
xG 0.43–0.16 (73%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Malkin – Smith – Rust10:08
xG 0.25–0.21 (54%)attempts 7–5goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Joseph14:40
xG 1.35–0.40 (77%)attempts 15–10goals 1–1
- Letang – Pettersson17:22
xG 0.98–0.55 (64%)attempts 16–18goals 2–3
- Ruhwedel – Graves10:02
xG 0.29–0.04 (88%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestPastrnak – Zacha – Geekie11:43
xG 0.34–0.23 (60%)attempts 7–8goals 2–0
- Steen – Beecher – Merkulov4:17
xG 0.00–0.45 (0%)attempts 0–7goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Heinen – Frederic8:00
xG 0.06–0.66 (9%)attempts 2–9goals 0–2
- Marchand – Coyle – DeBrusk9:45
xG 0.19–0.88 (17%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – Grzelcyk3:33
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Lindholm – Carlo10:24
xG 0.49–0.39 (55%)attempts 11–5goals 1–1
- Grzelcyk – Carlo4:04
xG 0.08–0.27 (22%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).