Thu, Jan 4, 2024·Madison Square Garden, New York
Chicago Blackhawks 1, New York Rangers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 09 | 16 | 08 | 123 |
| NYR | 111 | 17 | 214 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:00NYRArtemi PanarinAssists: Alexis Lafrenière, Vincent Trocheck · Slap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 7:25NYRChris KreiderPPGWGAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Mika Zibanejad · Deflected, 0.20 xG0–2
- P2 17:03CHIColin BlackwellAssists: Boris Katchouk, Jaycob Megna · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–2
- P3 1:31NYRJacob TroubaAssists: Artemi Panarin, Vincent Trocheck · Snap, 0.02 xG1–3
- P3 2:41NYRJimmy VeseyAssists: Will Cuylle, Braden Schneider · Snap, 0.13 xG1–4
Penalties (7)
- P2 4:31NYRAdam Fox: Interference2 min
- P2 5:35CHIKevin Korchinski: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 17:10NYRK'Andre Miller: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:05NYRBlake Wheeler: Fighting5 min
- P3 4:05CHIJarred Tinordi: Fighting5 min
- P3 13:19CHIJason Dickinson: High sticking2 min
- P3 13:36NYRAdam Fox: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dickinson won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestDonato – Kurashev – Bedard13:24
xG 0.72–0.67 (52%)attempts 17–12goals 0–2
- Foligno – Blackwell – Dickinson10:47
xG 0.17–0.32 (35%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Entwistle – Guttman – Reichel10:25
xG 0.34–0.65 (35%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Seney – Katchouk – Johnson8:45
xG 0.13–0.52 (20%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMegna – Korchinski2:19
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Zaitsev – Vlasic2:18
xG 0.04–0.00 (95%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Megna – Vlasic11:26
xG 0.33–0.37 (47%)attempts 8–11goals 1–1
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestTrocheck – Panarin – Lafrenière14:28
xG 1.08–0.32 (77%)attempts 18–10goals 2–0
- Bonino – Brodzinski – Othmann8:11
xG 0.71–0.13 (84%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Goodrow – Vesey – Cuylle9:27
xG 0.29–0.14 (67%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Wheeler – Kreider – Zibanejad9:17
xG 0.25–0.46 (35%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGustafsson – Schneider13:23
xG 0.87–0.19 (82%)attempts 15–6goals 1–0
- Trouba – Miller15:35
xG 0.52–0.46 (53%)attempts 19–15goals 1–1
- Fox – Lindgren15:50
xG 0.76–0.71 (52%)attempts 12–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).