Thu, Jan 4, 2024·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Columbus Blue Jackets 3, Philadelphia Flyers 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 06 | 08 | 212 | 02 | 1 | 328 |
| PHI | 114 | 013 | 113 | 01 | 0 | 241 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:12PHITravis KonecnyAssists: Joel Farabee, Sean Couturier · Tip-in, 0.18 xG0–1
- P3 4:29PHITravis KonecnyAssists: Joel Farabee, Sean Couturier · Backhand, 0.04 xG0–2
- P3 5:24CBJDamon SeversonAssists: Adam Fantilli, Jake Christiansen · Slap, 0.08 xG1–2
- P3 10:20CBJJake BeanAssists: Jack Roslovic, Erik Gudbranson · Tip-in, 0.05 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. PHI Sean Couturier stopped
- 2. CBJ Johnny Gaudreau scored
- 3. PHI Bobby Brink stopped
- 4. CBJ Kent Johnson stopped
- 5. PHI Tyson Foerster stopped
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:15CBJEmil Bemstrom: Holding2 min
- P1 11:11PHINicolas Deslauriers: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:45CBJMathieu Olivier: Interference2 min
- P1 17:45CBJJustin Danforth: Delaying game face off violation2 min
- P2 3:58PHIScott Laughton: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:28PHIMarc Staal: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:00CBJDamon Severson: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:49PHICam York: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:58PHIScott Laughton: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Fantilli
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestMarchenko – Voronkov – Chinakhov5:38
xG 0.42–0.24 (64%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Roslovic – Bemstrom – Johnson2:58
xG 0.10–0.01 (91%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Gaudreau – Roslovic – Fantilli8:05
xG 0.16–0.28 (36%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Bemstrom – Johnson – Sillinger6:24
xG 0.11–0.26 (29%)attempts 2–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBean – Jiricek6:28
xG 0.47–0.11 (81%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Gudbranson – Severson2:32
xG 0.21–0.17 (55%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Gudbranson – Christiansen5:54
xG 0.15–0.17 (47%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestCouturier – Konecny – Farabee11:36
xG 0.83–0.22 (79%)attempts 20–5goals 2–0
- Poehling – Brink – Foerster4:09
xG 0.20–0.03 (87%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Laughton – Hathaway – Tippett5:57
xG 0.30–0.24 (55%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
- Deslauriers – Hathaway – Gardner2:50
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Sanheim4:22
xG 0.35–0.02 (96%)attempts 8–2goals 1–0
- Ristolainen – Zamula5:05
xG 0.28–0.02 (93%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Seeler – Walker7:04
xG 0.38–0.23 (63%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).