Thu, Jan 4, 2024·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Colorado Avalanche 5, Dallas Stars 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 112 | 17 | 212 | 13 | 534 |
| DAL | 19 | 213 | 19 | 01 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:57DALEvgenii DadonovUnassisted · Snap, 0.48 xG0–1
- P1 13:44COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Miles Wood, Jack Johnson · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 1:28DALTyler SeguinAssists: Matt Duchene, Mason Marchment · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 10:10DALJoe PavelskiPPAssists: Matt Duchene, Miro Heiskanen · Slap, 0.10 xG1–3
- P2 19:48COLJonathan DrouinPPAssists: Devon Toews, Nathan MacKinnon · Snap, 0.27 xG2–3
- P3 9:07DALTyler SeguinAssists: Mason Marchment · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–4
- P3 9:45COLJonathan DrouinAssists: Jack Johnson · Tip-in, 0.08 xG3–4
- P3 18:51COLMikko RantanenAssists: Logan O'Connor, Cale Makar · Deflected, 0.12 xG4–4
- OT 3:40COLNathan MacKinnonGWGAssists: Devon Toews · Snap, 0.26 xG5–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 7:33DALThomas Harley: Holding2 min
- P1 14:15DALRoope Hintz: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:48COLRoss Colton: Holding2 min
- P2 9:22COLJack Johnson: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 18:17DALEvgenii Dadonov: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Pavelski
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestWood – Nichushkin – Colton3:07
xG 0.35–0.30 (54%)attempts 6–2goals 0–1
- MacKinnon – Drouin – Rantanen15:03
xG 0.69–0.64 (52%)attempts 15–20goals 1–0
- Johansen – Wood – Nichushkin7:49
xG 0.12–0.59 (17%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
- MacDermid – Olofsson – Kiviranta4:44
xG 0.00–0.66 (0%)attempts 1–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestManson – Girard4:33
xG 0.37–0.06 (86%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Toews – Makar13:02
xG 0.49–0.23 (68%)attempts 10–16goals 0–0
- Toews – Girard2:57
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBenn – Dadonov – Johnston10:11
xG 1.26–0.12 (91%)attempts 21–9goals 1–1
- Duchene – Seguin – Marchment11:21
xG 0.64–0.66 (49%)attempts 8–16goals 2–1
- Smith – Faksa – Steel7:05
xG 0.07–0.17 (29%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Hintz – Robertson12:20
xG 0.54–0.80 (40%)attempts 18–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHanley – Harley7:26
xG 0.94–0.02 (98%)attempts 13–2goals 1–0
- Hakanpää – Lindell12:02
xG 0.93–0.42 (69%)attempts 20–17goals 0–1
- Suter – Harley3:54
xG 0.35–0.03 (92%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).