Thu, Jan 4, 2024·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Calgary Flames 6, Nashville Predators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 411 | 114 | 114 | 639 |
| NSH | 210 | 06 | 116 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:45CGYConnor ZaryPPAssists: Yegor Sharangovich, Rasmus Andersson · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 5:12CGYBlake ColemanAssists: Mikael Backlund · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–0
- P1 6:09NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Gustav Nyquist · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–1
- P1 7:57CGYNazem KadriUnassisted · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–1
- P1 15:50NSHColton SissonsAssists: Dante Fabbro, Roman Josi · Tip-in, 0.14 xG3–2
- P1 18:43CGYRasmus AnderssonGWGAssists: Connor Zary · Backhand, 0.12 xG4–2
- P2 19:58CGYNoah HanifinAssists: Andrew Mangiapane, Blake Coleman · Wrist, 0.12 xG5–2
- P3 2:15NSHMichael McCarronAssists: Philip Tomasino, Tommy Novak · Wrist, 0.01 xG5–3
- P3 14:04CGYYegor SharangovichAssists: Elias Lindholm · Wrist, 0.20 xG6–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:12NSHMichael McCarron: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 16:45CGYNoah Hanifin: Interference2 min
- P1 16:45NSHLuke Evangelista: Embellishment2 min
- P2 2:10NSHLuke Schenn: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:22CGYRasmus Andersson: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 12:43NSHPhilip Tomasino: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:30NSHPhilip Tomasino: Match penalty5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Sissons
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestHuberdeau – Lindholm – Sharangovich11:34
xG 0.75–0.60 (56%)attempts 13–16goals 1–1
- Backlund – Coleman – Mangiapane10:39
xG 0.68–0.56 (55%)attempts 14–14goals 1–0
- Greer – Dube – Ruzicka5:39
xG 0.01–0.11 (12%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Kadri – Pospisil – Zary9:43
xG 0.35–0.60 (37%)attempts 10–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestTanev – Hanifin16:50
xG 1.27–0.54 (70%)attempts 20–24goals 3–2
- Weegar – Andersson13:29
xG 0.62–0.54 (53%)attempts 16–23goals 0–0
- Gilbert – DeSimone12:15
xG 0.05–1.11 (5%)attempts 4–12goals 0–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestSissons – Parssinen – Evangelista6:59
xG 0.75–0.01 (99%)attempts 14–3goals 1–0
- McCarron – Novak – Tomasino2:33
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 1–0
- McCarron – Trenin – Tomasino3:53
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Novak – Sherwood – Smith2:48
xG 0.25–0.07 (78%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLauzon – Carrier8:06
xG 0.71–0.11 (87%)attempts 15–4goals 2–0
- Schenn – Lauzon3:46
xG 0.43–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Fabbro3:38
xG 0.49–0.17 (74%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).