Thu, Jan 4, 2024·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Ottawa Senators 1, Seattle Kraken 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 013 | 013 | 17 | 133 |
| SEA | 17 | 215 | 16 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:50SEAYanni GourdeAssists: Eeli Tolvanen · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–1
- P2 15:20SEATomas TatarGWGAssists: Jordan Eberle, Vince Dunn · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–2
- P2 19:03SEAAndre BurakovskyAssists: Kailer Yamamoto · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–3
- P3 12:20OTTParker KellyAssists: Dominik Kubalik, Thomas Chabot · Poke, 0.26 xG1–3
- P3 17:47SEAVince DunnENAssists: Jordan Eberle · Wrist, 0.31 xG1–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 0:17OTTJosh Norris: High sticking2 min
- P1 3:40SEAAdam Larsson: Interference2 min
- P1 5:23SEAJared McCann: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:16OTTJakob Chychrun: Interference2 min
- P2 12:09SEAYanni Gourde: Slashing2 min
- P3 4:30SEABrian Dumoulin: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Norris won the faceoff against Wennberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Tarasenko – Stützle10:21
xG 0.88–0.39 (69%)attempts 19–8goals 0–1
- Kubalik – Kelly – Greig8:55
xG 0.55–0.33 (62%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Kastelic – Crookshank – Smejkal6:08
xG 0.05–0.24 (17%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Norris – Batherson – Tkachuk11:37
xG 0.30–0.89 (25%)attempts 12–19goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestChychrun – Sanderson15:06
xG 0.65–0.43 (60%)attempts 18–16goals 0–0
- Hamonic – Brannstrom9:57
xG 0.46–0.48 (49%)attempts 16–8goals 0–1
- Chabot – Zub14:11
xG 0.68–0.91 (43%)attempts 16–18goals 1–1
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestGourde – Bjorkstrand – Tolvanen8:52
xG 0.71–0.13 (84%)attempts 17–4goals 1–0
- Eberle – Tatar – Beniers12:23
xG 0.69–0.44 (61%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Burakovsky – Yamamoto – Kartye3:12
xG 0.21–0.09 (70%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- McCann – Yamamoto – Kartye2:16
xG 0.02–0.04 (36%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOleksiak – Borgen13:29
xG 0.61–0.28 (69%)attempts 16–13goals 1–0
- Larsson – Dunn13:54
xG 0.74–0.80 (48%)attempts 15–16goals 1–1
- Schultz – Dumoulin12:02
xG 0.32–0.64 (33%)attempts 10–21goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).