Thu, Jan 4, 2024·Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles
Detroit Red Wings 4, Los Angeles Kings 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 08 | 211 | 16 | 02 | 2 | 427 |
| LAK | 217 | 013 | 110 | 03 | 0 | 343 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:50LAKAdrian KempeAssists: Alex Laferriere, Pierre-Luc Dubois · Tip-in, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 4:18LAKMatt RoyAssists: Anze Kopitar, Quinton Byfield · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–2
- P2 9:59DETRobby FabbriAssists: Olli Maatta, Daniel Sprong · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–2
- P2 17:21DETJeff PetryAssists: Dylan Larkin, Joseph Veleno · Slap, 0.02 xG2–2
- P3 5:24DETRobby FabbriAssists: Daniel Sprong, Patrick Kane · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–2
- P3 15:43LAKAdrian KempeAssists: Pierre-Luc Dubois, Alex Laferriere · Snap, 0.04 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. LAK Trevor Moore stopped
- 2. DET Lucas Raymond scored
- 3. LAK Adrian Kempe stopped
- 4. DET Patrick Kane scored
Penalties (4)
- P2 6:08DETJeff Petry: Interference2 min
- P2 15:03LAKCarl Grundstrom: Interference2 min
- P2 0:00DETMoritz Seider: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:23LAKAdrian Kempe: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danault won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- Kane – DeBrincat – Veleno2:06
xG 0.07–0.05 (62%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Kane – Larkin – DeBrincat2:20
xG 0.06–0.03 (65%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Fischer – Rasmussen – Veleno2:15
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Kane – Compher – DeBrincat7:11
xG 0.19–0.20 (49%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHoll – Gostisbehere3:17
xG 0.41–0.01 (99%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Petry – Maatta3:48
xG 0.11–0.05 (67%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Maatta – Gostisbehere3:18
xG 0.25–0.21 (55%)attempts 1–6goals 1–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestKopitar – Moore – Byfield11:18
xG 0.61–0.24 (72%)attempts 17–9goals 1–0
- Kempe – Dubois – Laferriere13:12
xG 0.49–0.26 (66%)attempts 12–5goals 2–0
- Danault – Fiala – Kaliyev4:35
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Lewis – Lizotte – Kaliyev6:13
xG 0.33–0.33 (50%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGavrikov – Roy15:33
xG 1.16–0.57 (67%)attempts 26–13goals 1–0
- Englund – Spence6:34
xG 0.56–0.05 (91%)attempts 12–1goals 1–0
- Gavrikov – Spence3:24
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).