Sat, Jan 6, 2024·PNC Arena, Raleigh
St. Louis Blues 2, Carolina Hurricanes 1 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 15 | 07 | 07 | 03 | 2 | 222 |
| CAR | 16 | 013 | 09 | 02 | 1 | 130 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:04STLNathan WalkerAssists: Oskar Sundqvist, Torey Krug · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 13:17CARTeuvo TeravainenPPAssists: Jack Drury · Snap, 0.11 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. CAR Brent Burns stopped
- 2. STL Robert Thomas stopped
- 3. CAR Andrei Svechnikov stopped
- 4. STL Pavel Buchnevich stopped
- 5. CAR Teuvo Teravainen stopped
- 6. STL Jordan Kyrou stopped
- 7. CAR Sebastian Aho scored
- 8. STL Jake Neighbours scored
- 9. CAR Jordan Martinook stopped
- 10. STL Brayden Schenn scored
Penalties (2)
- P1 11:58STLPavel Buchnevich: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 12:10CARJordan Staal: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Thomas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestHayes – Kapanen – Toropchenko10:10
xG 0.51–0.17 (75%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Hayes – Vrana – Kapanen2:16
xG 0.00–0.02 (7%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Buchnevich – Kyrou – Thomas15:07
xG 0.57–0.61 (48%)attempts 12–15goals 0–0
- Sundqvist – Walker – Vrana4:53
xG 0.22–0.30 (42%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Scandella – Perunovich9:12
xG 0.06–0.16 (26%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Krug – Kessel17:14
xG 0.50–1.10 (31%)attempts 11–29goals 0–0
- Leddy – Parayko21:02
xG 0.36–1.00 (26%)attempts 13–20goals 1–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Martinook – Jarvis14:20
xG 0.96–0.57 (63%)attempts 15–13goals 0–0
- Teravainen – Aho – Svechnikov13:57
xG 0.69–0.34 (67%)attempts 18–9goals 0–0
- Noesen – Lemieux – Ponomarev5:21
xG 0.30–0.17 (64%)attempts 7–3goals 0–1
- Bunting – Kotkaniemi – Drury12:35
xG 0.20–0.50 (29%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSkjei – Pesce20:04
xG 1.88–0.35 (84%)attempts 37–10goals 0–0
- Burns – Slavin18:31
xG 0.62–0.63 (49%)attempts 18–14goals 0–0
- Orlov – Chatfield15:06
xG 0.21–0.66 (24%)attempts 7–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).