Sat, Jan 6, 2024·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Minnesota Wild 4, Columbus Blue Jackets 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 111 | 110 | 113 | 12 | 436 |
| CBJ | 18 | 110 | 18 | 03 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:09CBJCole SillingerAssists: Jake Bean, Adam Boqvist · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 14:48MINMatt BoldyPPAssists: Brock Faber, Joel Eriksson Ek · Slap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 0:17CBJCole SillingerAssists: Kirill Marchenko · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–2
- P2 10:15MINMatt BoldyPPAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Brock Faber · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–2
- P3 14:15CBJCole SillingerPPAssists: Adam Boqvist · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–3
- P3 18:28MINMarcus JohanssonAssists: Ryan Hartman · Backhand, 0.09 xG3–3
- OT 3:05MINMarco RossiGWGAssists: Matt Boldy, Brock Faber · Slap, 0.09 xG4–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 9:26MINMatt Boldy: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 14:43CBJAlexandre Texier: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P2 2:46MINJon Merrill: Roughing2 min
- P2 2:46CBJMathieu Olivier: Roughing2 min
- P2 2:46MINJon Merrill: Boarding2 min
- P2 9:16CBJErik Gudbranson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 17:50CBJDmitri Voronkov: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 1:42CBJJake Bean: High sticking2 min
- P3 14:09MINJon Merrill: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sillinger won the faceoff against Hartman
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- Zuccarello – Boldy – Rossi14:22
xG 0.30–0.32 (48%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
- Duhaime – Dewar – Raska4:49
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Maroon – Petan – Gaudreau3:10
xG 0.00–0.24 (0%)attempts 1–8goals 0–1
- Johansson – Hartman – Eriksson Ek13:03
xG 0.50–0.93 (35%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMiddleton – Faber17:44
xG 0.60–0.51 (54%)attempts 16–18goals 0–2
- Merrill – Mermis9:47
xG 0.16–0.21 (44%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Bogosian16:51
xG 0.43–0.89 (33%)attempts 12–17goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestMarchenko – Chinakhov – Sillinger10:03
xG 0.87–0.67 (56%)attempts 14–12goals 2–0
- Olivier – Texier – Voronkov5:26
xG 0.05–0.05 (49%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Roslovic – Bemstrom – Johnson8:53
xG 0.21–0.24 (46%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Danforth – Fantilli14:31
xG 0.26–0.36 (42%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudbranson – Bean15:25
xG 0.38–0.29 (56%)attempts 18–16goals 0–0
- Provorov – Jiricek15:13
xG 0.80–0.81 (50%)attempts 10–16goals 1–0
- Severson – Boqvist13:41
xG 0.23–0.30 (43%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).