Sat, Jan 6, 2024·Centre Bell, Montreal
New York Rangers 3, Montréal Canadiens 4 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 014 | 220 | 110 | 04 | 0 | 348 |
| MTL | 17 | 213 | 08 | 02 | 1 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:37MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: Jake Evans, David Savard · Snap, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 1:09MTLSean MonahanAssists: Jesse Ylonen · Deflected, 0.08 xG0–2
- P2 2:39MTLJoel ArmiaAssists: Mitchell Stephens, Michael Pezzetta · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–3
- P2 10:28NYRVincent TrocheckAssists: Erik Gustafsson, Artemi Panarin · Tip-in, 0.15 xG1–3
- P2 14:29NYRArtemi PanarinAssists: Vincent Trocheck · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–3
- P3 9:30NYRAdam FoxAssists: Jimmy Vesey, Will Cuylle · Snap, 0.03 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. MTL Nick Suzuki stopped
- 2. NYR Artemi Panarin stopped
- 3. MTL Cole Caufield scored
- 4. NYR Mika Zibanejad stopped
- 5. MTL Jesse Ylonen stopped
- 6. NYR Alexis Lafrenière stopped
Penalties (5)
- P1 7:23MTLKaiden Guhle: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:38NYRChris Kreider: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:02MTLNick Suzuki: High sticking2 min
- P3 13:25MTLKaiden Guhle: Hooking2 min
- OT 4:48NYRK'Andre Miller: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Evans
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestGoodrow – Vesey – Cuylle7:33
xG 0.69–0.11 (86%)attempts 11–3goals 1–1
- Trocheck – Panarin – Lafrenière14:07
xG 0.84–0.35 (71%)attempts 22–6goals 2–0
- Wheeler – Kreider – Zibanejad10:14
xG 0.28–0.23 (55%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Bonino – Brodzinski – Othmann5:06
xG 0.03–0.23 (10%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGustafsson – Schneider11:22
xG 1.29–0.33 (80%)attempts 24–4goals 2–1
- Fox – Lindgren15:31
xG 0.63–0.51 (55%)attempts 17–8goals 1–1
- Trouba – Miller18:04
xG 0.27–0.63 (30%)attempts 16–26goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestSuzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský14:53
xG 0.49–0.37 (57%)attempts 12–16goals 0–1
- Gallagher – Anderson – Evans11:46
xG 0.43–0.34 (56%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Armia – Stephens – Pezzetta5:46
xG 0.23–0.33 (41%)attempts 5–9goals 1–1
- Monahan – Ylonen – Heineman8:21
xG 0.35–0.72 (33%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHarris – Struble13:41
xG 0.73–0.24 (75%)attempts 15–9goals 2–0
- Savard – Matheson16:12
xG 0.82–0.43 (66%)attempts 21–22goals 1–1
- Matheson – Barron2:03
xG 0.03–0.12 (17%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).