Sat, Jan 6, 2024·Prudential Center, Newark
Vancouver Canucks 6, New Jersey Devils 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 92% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 018 | 415 | 210 | 643 |
| NJD | 05 | 211 | 29 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:41VANElias PetterssonAssists: Filip Hronek, Quinn Hughes · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 3:33VANJ.T. MillerAssists: Brock Boeser, Quinn Hughes · Deflected, 0.11 xG2–0
- P2 4:37VANJ.T. MillerAssists: Elias Pettersson, Ian Cole · Slap, 0.08 xG3–0
- P2 6:43NJDColin MillerAssists: Curtis Lazar, Michael McLeod · Slap, 0.01 xG3–1
- P2 19:37NJDErik HaulaAssists: Jesper Bratt, Luke Hughes · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–2
- P2 19:49VANConor GarlandAssists: Dakota Joshua, Carson Soucy · Wrap-around, 0.03 xG4–2
- P3 2:35VANElias PetterssonGWGAssists: Brock Boeser, Quinn Hughes · Wrist, 0.18 xG5–2
- P3 11:07NJDColin MillerAssists: Chris Tierney, Brendan Smith · Wrist, 0.05 xG5–3
- P3 12:54NJDNico HischierAssists: Brendan Smith, Erik Haula · Deflected, 0.12 xG5–4
- P3 18:49VANDakota JoshuaENAssists: J.T. Miller, Teddy Blueger · Wrist, 0.68 xG6–4
Penalties (3)
- P1 7:23NJDJonas Siegenthaler: Interference2 min
- P3 5:18VANNils Aman: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:29VANDakota Joshua: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hischier won the faceoff against Miller
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestMiller – Boeser – Pettersson13:20
xG 0.94–0.19 (83%)attempts 18–11goals 4–0
- Suter – Mikheyev – Kuzmenko10:18
xG 0.64–0.14 (82%)attempts 18–5goals 0–1
- Blueger – Joshua – Garland10:54
xG 0.89–0.49 (64%)attempts 13–10goals 1–1
- Lafferty – Hoglander – Aman8:33
xG 0.63–0.37 (63%)attempts 13–9goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Juulsen12:18
xG 1.07–0.11 (91%)attempts 15–8goals 0–1
- Hronek – Hughes16:47
xG 1.11–0.51 (69%)attempts 26–12goals 3–2
- Myers – Soucy15:48
xG 0.75–0.15 (83%)attempts 20–8goals 1–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- Tierney – Bratt – Clarke2:09
xG 0.06–0.03 (70%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
- Toffoli – Bratt – Mercer2:17
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Bastian – Mercer5:44
xG 0.25–0.34 (42%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
- Haula – Bratt – Hischier10:07
xG 0.41–0.58 (41%)attempts 11–8goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestSmith – Miller4:46
xG 0.22–0.06 (78%)attempts 7–3goals 2–0
- Miller – Hughes8:08
xG 0.01–0.46 (3%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Marino – Bahl11:39
xG 0.05–0.51 (9%)attempts 5–14goals 0–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 92% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).