Sun, Jan 7, 2024·United Center, Chicago
Calgary Flames 3, Chicago Blackhawks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 16 | 114 | 110 | 330 |
| CHI | 15 | 212 | 13 | 420 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:32CHIColin BlackwellAssists: Jarred Tinordi, Connor Murphy · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 13:12CGYNazem KadriAssists: Noah Hanifin, Martin Pospisil · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 3:26CGYAndrew MangiapanePPAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, MacKenzie Weegar · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
- P2 12:09CHIPhilipp KurashevAssists: Jason Dickinson, Alex Vlasic · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
- P2 14:49CHINikita ZaitsevAssists: Colin Blackwell, Jarred Tinordi · Slap, 0.02 xG2–3
- P3 14:37CHIColin BlackwellPPGWGAssists: Zachary Sanford, Nikita Zaitsev · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–4
- P3 15:19CGYNazem KadriAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Rasmus Andersson · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 14:35CHINikita Zaitsev: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:58CGYChris Tanev: Holding2 min
- P2 2:47CHIBrett Seney: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 8:42CGYMartin Pospisil: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:50CHIBoris Katchouk: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:50CGYRasmus Andersson: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Entwistle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBacklund – Coleman – Mangiapane13:33
xG 0.70–0.17 (80%)attempts 20–5goals 0–0
- Kadri – Pospisil – Zary7:48
xG 0.35–0.10 (79%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Huberdeau – Lindholm – Sharangovich9:37
xG 0.42–0.20 (68%)attempts 11–11goals 0–2
- Greer – Dube – Duehr3:43
xG 0.02–0.10 (13%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Andersson17:20
xG 1.07–0.13 (89%)attempts 22–8goals 1–1
- Oesterle – DeSimone9:39
xG 0.06–0.21 (21%)attempts 7–10goals 0–2
- Tanev – Hanifin15:25
xG 0.34–0.64 (35%)attempts 11–16goals 1–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestBlackwell – Dickinson – Kurashev9:45
xG 0.18–0.08 (69%)attempts 10–8goals 3–0
- Seney – Katchouk – Johnson7:04
xG 0.24–0.22 (52%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Sanford – Donato – Katchouk2:07
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Sanford – Donato – Reichel2:24
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Tinordi – Murphy11:27
xG 0.26–0.24 (51%)attempts 8–9goals 1–1
- Murphy – Vlasic5:05
xG 0.18–0.17 (52%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Tinordi – Megna2:30
xG 0.08–0.10 (43%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).