Sun, Jan 7, 2024·Capital One Arena, Washington
Los Angeles Kings 3, Washington Capitals 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 011 | 218 | 112 | 341 |
| WSH | 012 | 211 | 211 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:22WSHNic DowdAssists: Nicolas Aube-Kubel, John Carlson · Backhand, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 7:12LAKAdrian KempePPAssists: Drew Doughty, Anze Kopitar · Slap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 13:02LAKKevin FialaAssists: Phillip Danault, Mikey Anderson · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–1
- P2 15:35WSHDylan StromeAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Max Pacioretty · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–2
- P3 1:01LAKKevin FialaPPAssists: Quinton Byfield · Backhand, 0.31 xG3–2
- P3 8:36WSHNicolas Aube-KubelAssists: Nic Dowd · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–3
- P3 19:07WSHJohn CarlsonGWGAssists: Beck Malenstyn, Nicolas Aube-Kubel · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 5:00LAKVladislav Gavrikov: High sticking2 min
- P2 6:03WSHEthan Bear: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 7:28WSHJoel Edmundson: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:56WSHConnor McMichael: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dowd won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestDanault – Fiala – Kaliyev12:28
xG 0.90–0.17 (84%)attempts 16–9goals 1–1
- Lewis – Grundstrom – Lizotte8:30
xG 0.72–0.34 (68%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Kopitar – Moore – Byfield10:42
xG 0.23–0.38 (38%)attempts 11–14goals 0–1
- Kempe – Dubois – Laferriere11:08
xG 0.34–0.99 (25%)attempts 10–16goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestDoughty – Anderson21:25
xG 1.58–0.39 (80%)attempts 28–22goals 1–0
- Englund – Roy14:33
xG 0.62–0.39 (62%)attempts 16–14goals 0–2
- Gavrikov – Roy2:43
xG 0.08–0.35 (19%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestMantha – McMichael – Protas13:07
xG 0.81–0.30 (73%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Pacioretty – Strome – Lapierre4:25
xG 0.23–0.20 (53%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Dowd – Aube-Kubel – Malenstyn11:33
xG 0.20–0.20 (49%)attempts 10–14goals 3–0
- Kuznetsov – Wilson – Lapierre2:25
xG 0.01–0.12 (6%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJensen – van Riemsdyk16:41
xG 0.98–0.44 (69%)attempts 18–13goals 1–0
- Carlson – Fehérváry15:25
xG 0.45–0.41 (52%)attempts 16–20goals 2–0
- Edmundson – Bear12:24
xG 0.34–1.47 (19%)attempts 18–21goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).