Mon, Jan 8, 2024·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Pittsburgh Penguins 4, Philadelphia Flyers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 217 | 114 | 18 | 439 |
| PHI | 113 | 013 | 011 | 137 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:45PITRickard RakellPPAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Jake Guentzel · Snap, 0.35 xG1–0
- P1 7:37PITErik KarlssonGWGAssists: Jansen Harkins, Jeff Carter · Wrist, 0.00 xG2–0
- P1 14:55PHIOwen TippettPPAssists: Egor Zamula, Joel Farabee · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 8:07PITChad RuhwedelAssists: Bryan Rust, Ryan Graves · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–1
- P3 4:29PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Drew O'Connor · Snap, 0.10 xG4–1
Penalties (11)
- P1 0:28PHISean Couturier: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 2:09PITJansen Harkins: Hooking2 min
- P1 3:55PHITravis Sanheim: Roughing2 min
- P1 10:36PHINick Seeler: Elbowing2 min
- P1 14:39PITJansen Harkins: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 15:37PHICam Atkinson: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 17:54PHIRyan Poehling: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 5:43PHIGarnet Hathaway: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 5:43PITKris Letang: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:09PHIScott Laughton: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:09PITEvgeni Malkin: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Rust – O'Connor9:06
xG 1.59–0.10 (94%)attempts 18–8goals 2–0
- Carter – Harkins – Acciari5:35
xG 0.63–0.27 (70%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Crosby – Rakell – Guentzel10:08
xG 0.77–0.52 (59%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
- Eller – Smith – Puustinen8:26
xG 0.34–0.22 (61%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Joseph11:33
xG 0.76–0.12 (86%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Ruhwedel – Graves12:47
xG 1.20–0.63 (66%)attempts 12–20goals 2–0
- Letang – Pettersson13:31
xG 0.88–0.50 (64%)attempts 17–16goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestCouturier – Konecny – Foerster2:27
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Deslauriers – Hathaway – Poehling5:21
xG 0.23–0.12 (65%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
- Frost – Brink – Foerster5:44
xG 0.17–0.20 (46%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Couturier – Konecny – Farabee9:31
xG 0.40–0.79 (34%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Sanheim – York13:19
xG 0.35–0.83 (30%)attempts 10–13goals 0–1
- Ristolainen – Zamula14:54
xG 0.29–0.80 (27%)attempts 17–11goals 0–2
- Seeler – Walker13:36
xG 0.76–1.55 (33%)attempts 20–19goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).