Mon, Jan 8, 2024·Ball Arena, Denver
Boston Bruins 3, Colorado Avalanche 4 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 15 | 19 | 18 | 04 | 0 | 326 |
| COL | 113 | 210 | 012 | 01 | 1 | 436 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:21BOSBrad MarchandPPAssists: Pavel Zacha, David Pastrnak · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 16:13COLMikko RantanenPPAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 2:23COLLogan O'ConnorUnassisted · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–2
- P2 10:05BOSJohn BeecherAssists: Danton Heinen, Brandon Carlo · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–2
- P2 17:56COLSam MalinskiAssists: Ryan Johansen · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–3
- P3 5:46BOSBrad MarchandAssists: Charlie Coyle, Matt Grzelcyk · Tip-in, 0.13 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. BOS Jake DeBrusk stopped
- 2. COL Nathan MacKinnon stopped
- 3. BOS Charlie Coyle stopped
- 4. COL Mikko Rantanen stopped
- 5. BOS David Pastrnak stopped
- 6. COL Valeri Nichushkin scored
Penalties (11)
- P1 6:36BOSBrad Marchand: Slashing2 min
- P1 10:22COLAndrew Cogliano: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 15:26BOSCharlie Coyle: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 18:16COLJack Johnson: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:40BOSCharlie McAvoy: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:41BOSDanton Heinen: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:12BOSOskar Steen: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 7:12COLKurtis MacDermid: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 12:29BOSMatt Grzelcyk: High sticking2 min
- P3 17:17BOSHampus Lindholm: Interference2 min
- OT 3:02COLLogan O'Connor: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Coyle won the faceoff against Colton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- Steen – Boqvist – Beecher5:28
xG 0.02–0.01 (76%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Pastrnak – Zacha – Geekie11:43
xG 0.88–0.93 (49%)attempts 14–19goals 0–1
- Marchand – Coyle – DeBrusk8:55
xG 0.28–0.38 (43%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
- Heinen – Frederic – Poitras10:01
xG 0.06–0.52 (10%)attempts 7–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – Grzelcyk3:42
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Wotherspoon4:45
xG 0.16–0.07 (70%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Wotherspoon – McAvoy4:35
xG 0.02–0.05 (31%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestNichushkin – Colton – O'Connor9:29
xG 0.68–0.11 (86%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Cogliano – Johansen – Kiviranta7:10
xG 0.40–0.05 (90%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- MacKinnon – Drouin – Rantanen14:48
xG 0.33–0.32 (51%)attempts 17–8goals 0–1
- MacDermid – Olofsson – Polin3:43
xG 0.05–0.16 (25%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJones – Malinski7:12
xG 0.37–0.03 (93%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Girard – Malinski4:52
xG 0.51–0.18 (74%)attempts 15–3goals 2–1
- Johnson – Jones2:31
xG 0.15–0.01 (95%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).