Tue, Jan 9, 2024·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Los Angeles Kings 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 06 | 28 | 08 | 00 | 222 |
| TBL | 011 | 07 | 29 | 12 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 11:31LAKPhillip DanaultAssists: Jordan Spence, Trevor Moore · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–0
- P2 14:30LAKMatt RoyAssists: Kevin Fiala, Trevor Moore · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–0
- P3 12:37TBLTyler MotteAssists: Michael Eyssimont · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–1
- P3 15:39TBLBrandon HagelAssists: Nick Perbix, Emil Lilleberg · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–2
- OT 2:03TBLNick PerbixGWGAssists: Brandon Hagel · Backhand, 0.30 xG2–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 8:45TBLConor Sheary: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:55TBLAnthony Cirelli: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:55LAKAdrian Kempe: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:50LAKPhillip Danault: High sticking2 min
- P3 2:22LAKPierre-Luc Dubois: Illegal check to head2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cirelli won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestDanault – Fiala – Moore12:31
xG 0.76–0.25 (75%)attempts 8–8goals 2–0
- Lewis – Grundstrom – Dubois9:26
xG 0.06–0.38 (13%)attempts 5–12goals 0–1
- Lizotte – Kaliyev – Laferriere7:55
xG 0.19–0.52 (27%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
- Kopitar – Kempe – Byfield11:56
xG 0.15–0.75 (16%)attempts 8–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGavrikov – Roy18:16
xG 1.09–0.40 (73%)attempts 24–16goals 1–1
- Englund – Spence9:52
xG 0.20–0.39 (34%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
- Doughty – Anderson19:06
xG 0.19–1.45 (11%)attempts 6–29goals 0–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestPaul – Sheary – Barré-Boulet5:56
xG 0.65–0.17 (80%)attempts 10–2goals 0–1
- Cirelli – Hagel – Eyssimont7:35
xG 0.46–0.24 (66%)attempts 16–6goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Kucherov – Point15:38
xG 0.38–0.18 (68%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Paul – Cirelli – Hagel4:36
xG 0.08–0.05 (63%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestde Haan – Cernak10:11
xG 0.95–0.11 (90%)attempts 20–7goals 1–0
- Perbix – Lilleberg12:56
xG 0.62–0.35 (64%)attempts 10–6goals 1–2
- Hedman – Cernak4:45
xG 0.30–0.11 (74%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).