Tue, Jan 9, 2024·UBS Arena, Elmont
Vancouver Canucks 5, New York Islanders 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 89% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 211 | 217 | 16 | 534 |
| NYI | 011 | 14 | 15 | 220 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:25VANFilip HronekAssists: Ilya Mikheyev, Conor Garland · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 18:42VANQuinn HughesUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–0
- P2 10:20VANElias PetterssonGWGAssists: J.T. Miller, Filip Hronek · Wrist, 0.34 xG3–0
- P2 11:11NYIBrock NelsonPPAssists: Kyle Palmieri, Mathew Barzal · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–1
- P2 17:24VANTyler MyersAssists: Teddy Blueger, Conor Garland · Slap, 0.06 xG4–1
- P3 15:15NYIBrock NelsonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–2
- P3 18:32VANDakota JoshuaENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.53 xG5–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 14:10NYIMathew Barzal: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:23NYIAnders Lee: Elbowing2 min
- P2 2:13NYINoah Dobson: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:39VANTeddy Blueger: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 17:36VANSam Lafferty: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:17NYIJean-Gabriel Pageau: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horvat won the faceoff against Miller
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestMiller – Boeser – Pettersson10:32
xG 0.90–0.43 (68%)attempts 13–11goals 2–1
- Blueger – Joshua – Garland9:27
xG 0.58–0.24 (70%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Lafferty – Hoglander – Aman8:08
xG 0.25–0.08 (76%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Suter – Mikheyev – Kuzmenko9:47
xG 0.32–0.34 (49%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHronek – Hughes15:37
xG 1.12–0.14 (89%)attempts 14–8goals 2–0
- Myers – Soucy12:47
xG 0.57–0.37 (61%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Soucy – Zadorov2:11
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestPalmieri – Nelson – Engvall9:34
xG 0.65–0.30 (68%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Lee – Horvat – Barzal10:36
xG 0.34–0.36 (49%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas2:25
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Pageau2:01
xG 0.00–0.16 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Dobson – Romanov16:24
xG 0.48–0.47 (51%)attempts 15–13goals 0–2
- Mayfield – Romanov2:14
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Reilly – Aho11:11
xG 0.22–0.40 (35%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 89% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).