Tue, Jan 9, 2024·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Anaheim Ducks 5, Nashville Predators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 314 | 17 | 112 | 533 |
| NSH | 011 | 014 | 317 | 342 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:12ANARyan StromeAssists: Alex Killorn · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–0
- P1 14:11ANAFrank VatranoAssists: Jackson LaCombe, Alex Killorn · Deflected, 0.12 xG2–0
- P1 17:37ANAMason McTavishPPAssists: Troy Terry, Pavel Mintyukov · Snap, 0.08 xG3–0
- P2 3:05ANATroy TerryGWGAssists: Adam Henrique, Urho Vaakanainen · Deflected, 0.05 xG4–0
- P3 3:16ANARadko GudasAssists: Jackson LaCombe · Wrap-around, 0.07 xG5–0
- P3 9:45NSHAlexandre CarrierSHAssists: Gustav Nyquist · Wrist, 0.08 xG5–1
- P3 17:02NSHPhilip TomasinoAssists: Michael McCarron, Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.06 xG5–2
- P3 19:15NSHDenis GurianovAssists: Michael McCarron, Juuso Parssinen · Poke, 0.11 xG5–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 9:04ANARyan Strome: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:28ANARoss Johnston: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:28NSHLuke Schenn: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:21NSHFilip Forsberg: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 16:39ANAMason McTavish: Interference2 min
- P3 1:06ANARadko Gudas: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:23NSHCody Glass: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:44NSHCody Glass: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Henrique won the faceoff against Sissons
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestStrome – Lundeström – Leason3:27
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Henrique – Strome – Terry9:02
xG 0.25–0.25 (50%)attempts 11–8goals 1–1
- Killorn – Vatrano – McTavish11:48
xG 0.38–0.64 (37%)attempts 14–16goals 1–0
- Silfverberg – Carrick – Johnston4:27
xG 0.10–0.44 (19%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFowler – Vaakanainen15:54
xG 0.34–0.14 (72%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Fowler – Lyubushkin2:03
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Lyubushkin – Mintyukov10:06
xG 0.26–0.43 (38%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestNovak – Smith – Evangelista5:36
xG 0.42–0.11 (80%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- McCarron – Glass – Tomasino6:23
xG 0.34–0.39 (47%)attempts 7–9goals 0–2
- Sissons – Gurianov – Parssinen6:55
xG 0.07–0.19 (26%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Nyquist – O'Reilly – Forsberg8:32
xG 0.09–0.35 (21%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchenn – Josi5:45
xG 0.44–0.14 (76%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Carrier10:29
xG 0.36–0.12 (75%)attempts 13–4goals 0–1
- Josi – Fabbro7:48
xG 0.60–0.49 (55%)attempts 11–7goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).