Thu, Jan 11, 2024·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Vancouver Canucks 4, Pittsburgh Penguins 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 39 | 012 | 05 | 13 | 429 |
| PIT | 110 | 110 | 114 | 01 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:44VANBrock BoeserAssists: Elias Pettersson, J.T. Miller · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 6:31VANBrock BoeserPPAssists: J.T. Miller, Elias Pettersson · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–0
- P1 16:20PITMarcus PetterssonAssists: Jansen Harkins · Snap, 0.01 xG2–1
- P1 17:31VANElias PetterssonAssists: Filip Hronek, J.T. Miller · Tip-in, 0.08 xG3–1
- P2 6:05PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Jake Guentzel, Marcus Pettersson · Snap, 0.07 xG3–2
- P3 19:31PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Erik Karlsson, Kris Letang · Tip-in, 0.10 xG3–3
- OT 3:05VANElias PetterssonGWGAssists: Filip Hronek · Wrist, 0.27 xG4–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 6:03PITSidney Crosby: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 8:38VANIlya Mikheyev: Interference2 min
- P2 15:17VANQuinn Hughes: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 5:24VANJ.T. Miller: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:57PITLars Eller: Cross checking2 min
- P3 14:49VANFilip Hronek: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Miller
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestLafferty – Hoglander – Aman7:06
xG 0.48–0.16 (75%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Suter – Mikheyev – Kuzmenko8:33
xG 0.37–0.07 (84%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- Blueger – Joshua – Garland9:38
xG 0.26–0.29 (47%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Miller – Boeser – Pettersson11:33
xG 0.48–0.65 (43%)attempts 10–14goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Zadorov12:53
xG 0.67–0.16 (81%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Hronek – Hughes15:04
xG 0.61–0.58 (51%)attempts 13–13goals 2–2
- Myers – Soucy12:50
xG 0.37–0.46 (45%)attempts 9–19goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Rakell – Guentzel14:48
xG 0.79–0.46 (63%)attempts 23–9goals 1–0
- Eller – Smith – Puustinen2:49
xG 0.00–0.17 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Malkin – Rust – O'Connor10:28
xG 0.29–0.53 (36%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
- Carter – Harkins – Acciari4:45
xG 0.01–0.36 (3%)attempts 2–8goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Pettersson18:00
xG 0.85–0.61 (58%)attempts 24–15goals 2–1
- Ruhwedel – Joseph5:12
xG 0.12–0.15 (44%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Graves6:42
xG 0.16–0.31 (34%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).