Thu, Jan 11, 2024·Amalie Arena, Tampa
New Jersey Devils 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 110 | 110 | 18 | 02 | 330 |
| TBL | 26 | 19 | 04 | 11 | 420 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:42NJDDawson MercerAssists: Erik Haula, Colin Miller · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 12:35TBLLuke GlendeningAssists: Nick Perbix, Austin Watson · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–1
- P1 18:22TBLLuke GlendeningSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–2
- P2 10:34TBLBrayden PointAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Nick Perbix · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–3
- P2 16:54NJDJesper BrattAssists: John Marino, Tyler Toffoli · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–3
- P3 3:53NJDNathan BastianUnassisted · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–3
- OT 1:52TBLDarren RaddyshGWGAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Andrei Vasilevskiy · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 17:59TBLGage Goncalves: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:59TBLGage Goncalves: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:59NJDNathan Bastian: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:29NJDBrendan Smith: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:59TBLBrandon Hagel: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:59NJDSimon Nemec: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:08NJDColin Miller: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:51NJDErik Haula: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cirelli won the faceoff against Hischier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestHaula – Hischier – Mercer13:34
xG 0.85–0.01 (99%)attempts 16–4goals 1–0
- Toffoli – Bratt – McLeod11:41
xG 0.64–0.09 (87%)attempts 19–7goals 1–0
- Willman – Bastian – Bowers6:44
xG 0.32–0.23 (59%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Tierney – Lazar – Holtz8:06
xG 0.14–0.51 (21%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMarino – Hughes15:39
xG 0.78–0.10 (89%)attempts 18–8goals 1–0
- Smith – Nemec10:06
xG 0.63–0.30 (67%)attempts 12–4goals 1–1
- Miller – Bahl17:53
xG 0.51–0.26 (66%)attempts 17–15goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestMotte – Sheary – Goncalves5:08
xG 0.29–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Cirelli – Hagel – Eyssimont2:17
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Watson – Glendening – Eyssimont3:56
xG 0.09–0.11 (45%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Paul – Cirelli – Hagel10:14
xG 0.01–0.18 (6%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- de Haan – Raddysh3:55
xG 0.04–0.02 (61%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- de Haan – Perbix7:15
xG 0.16–0.16 (50%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- de Haan – Cernak6:01
xG 0.14–0.14 (50%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).