Fri, Jan 12, 2024·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Philadelphia Flyers 4, Minnesota Wild 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 010 | 112 | 29 | 14 | 435 |
| MIN | 011 | 17 | 211 | 00 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:51MINMarcus JohanssonAssists: Joel Eriksson Ek · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 3:37PHIJoel FarabeeAssists: Travis Konecny, Sean Couturier · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–1
- P3 1:48MINRyan HartmanAssists: Alex Goligoski, Zach Bogosian · Slap, 0.04 xG1–2
- P3 4:38MINMatt BoldyAssists: Jake Middleton, Ryan Hartman · Slap, 0.10 xG1–3
- P3 9:31PHITyson FoersterAssists: Scott Laughton, Sean Walker · Snap, 0.05 xG2–3
- P3 10:56PHIOwen TippettAssists: Travis Konecny, Jamie Drysdale · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–3
- OT 3:36PHIJoel FarabeePPGWGAssists: Egor Zamula, Owen Tippett · Wrist, 0.23 xG4–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:51PHIEgor Zamula: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:17MINPatrick Maroon: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:17PHINicolas Deslauriers: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:12MINRyan Hartman: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:16PHIJamie Drysdale: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:40MINMats Zuccarello: Too many men on the ice2 min
- OT 1:37MINMats Zuccarello: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Eriksson Ek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestCouturier – Konecny – Farabee11:28
xG 0.75–0.51 (60%)attempts 17–14goals 1–1
- Couturier – Konecny – Tippett2:47
xG 0.20–0.06 (78%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Deslauriers – Poehling – Foerster2:21
xG 0.06–0.05 (51%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Atkinson – Frost – Farabee2:35
xG 0.08–0.14 (36%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSanheim – Drysdale13:02
xG 0.77–0.31 (71%)attempts 15–11goals 1–0
- Seeler – Ristolainen7:36
xG 0.38–0.11 (78%)attempts 17–6goals 0–0
- York – Drysdale4:16
xG 0.15–0.18 (45%)attempts 4–4goals 1–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestZuccarello – Hartman – Boldy14:48
xG 0.83–0.50 (62%)attempts 17–15goals 2–1
- Maroon – Gaudreau – Rossi8:20
xG 0.06–0.05 (55%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Johansson – Foligno – Eriksson Ek10:11
xG 0.22–0.28 (45%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
- Duhaime – Dewar – Raska6:45
xG 0.10–0.18 (37%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMerrill – Mermis9:52
xG 0.37–0.15 (70%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Bogosian18:35
xG 0.54–0.38 (58%)attempts 19–14goals 2–1
- Middleton – Faber19:13
xG 0.59–1.01 (37%)attempts 18–27goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).