Sat, Jan 13, 2024·Capital One Arena, Washington
New York Rangers 2, Washington Capitals 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 18 | 19 | 010 | 227 |
| WSH | 15 | 010 | 26 | 321 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:23NYRAdam FoxAssists: Will Cuylle, Chris Kreider · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 17:50WSHAnthony ManthaAssists: Connor McMichael · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 5:15NYRAdam FoxUnassisted · Slap, 0.01 xG2–1
- P3 6:36WSHNic DowdAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, John Carlson · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–2
- P3 8:29WSHT.J. OshieGWGAssists: Dylan Strome, Joel Edmundson · Backhand, 0.17 xG2–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 8:58WSHTom Wilson: Boarding2 min
- P1 8:58NYRAnton Blidh: Cross checking2 min
- P1 8:58WSHConnor McMichael: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:17WSHNic Dowd: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:17WSHNic Dowd: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 15:17NYRRyan Lindgren: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 12:52NYRRyan Lindgren: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:26WSHMax Pacioretty: Cross checking2 min
- P3 4:26NYRChris Kreider: Slashing2 min
- P3 14:33NYRAlexis Lafrenière: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Goodrow won the faceoff against McMichael
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestTrocheck – Panarin – Lafrenière13:17
xG 1.23–0.81 (61%)attempts 28–14goals 0–1
- Bonino – Blidh – Brodzinski4:31
xG 0.03–0.19 (13%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Kreider – Zibanejad – Cuylle10:40
xG 0.23–0.43 (35%)attempts 5–9goals 1–0
- Wheeler – Goodrow – Vesey9:16
xG 0.10–0.47 (17%)attempts 5–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGustafsson – Schneider10:58
xG 0.56–0.06 (91%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Trouba – Miller15:43
xG 0.51–0.75 (40%)attempts 18–17goals 0–1
- Fox – Lindgren14:13
xG 0.54–0.82 (40%)attempts 13–17goals 2–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOshie – Pacioretty – Strome13:05
xG 0.71–0.29 (71%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
- Kuznetsov – Mantha – Lapierre6:37
xG 0.63–0.21 (75%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
- Wilson – McMichael – Protas6:45
xG 0.44–0.11 (80%)attempts 12–3goals 0–1
- Mantha – McMichael – Protas2:58
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJensen – Bear9:12
xG 0.46–0.22 (68%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
- Edmundson – van Riemsdyk4:36
xG 0.21–0.07 (74%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Jensen – Fehérváry3:21
xG 0.20–0.11 (63%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).