Sat, Jan 13, 2024·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Vancouver Canucks 1, Buffalo Sabres 0
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 07 | 17 | 09 | 123 |
| BUF | 09 | 08 | 09 | 026 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:05VANSam LaffertyGWGAssists: Nikita Zadorov · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–0
Penalties (11)
- P1 7:29BUFPeyton Krebs: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:02BUFOwen Power: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:02VANJ.T. Miller: Elbowing2 min
- P2 6:49BUFTage Thompson: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:29BUFErik Johnson: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:29VANJ.T. Miller: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:30BUFJordan Greenway: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:30VANFilip Hronek: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:33VANDakota Joshua: High sticking2 min
- P2 18:10VANIan Cole: Holding2 min
- P3 2:40VANNils Hoglander: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cozens won the faceoff against Miller
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestLafferty – Hoglander – Aman6:18
xG 0.33–0.04 (89%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Blueger – Joshua – Garland9:38
xG 0.68–0.43 (61%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Suter – Mikheyev – Kuzmenko6:05
xG 0.20–0.01 (95%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Miller – Boeser – Pettersson9:55
xG 0.18–0.36 (33%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Zadorov11:45
xG 0.41–0.29 (59%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Myers – Soucy11:04
xG 0.14–0.01 (91%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Hronek – Hughes13:02
xG 0.58–0.46 (56%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestTuch – Thompson – Mittelstadt8:17
xG 0.33–0.02 (95%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Cozens – Quinn – Peterka8:57
xG 0.26–0.23 (54%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Greenway – Robinson – Benson6:21
xG 0.07–0.24 (22%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Okposo – Girgensons – Krebs5:18
xG 0.17–0.41 (30%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Power5:09
xG 0.29–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Dahlin – Johnson3:05
xG 0.22–0.04 (85%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Samuelsson – Dahlin3:42
xG 0.24–0.14 (64%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).