Sat, Jan 13, 2024·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
San Jose Sharks 4, Ottawa Senators 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 19 | 24 | 15 | 418 |
| OTT | 28 | 222 | 111 | 541 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:12OTTClaude GirouxAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Artem Zub · Snap, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 9:58OTTThomas ChabotAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, Tim Stützle · Slap, 0.10 xG0–2
- P1 12:35SJSAnthony DuclairAssists: Alexander Barabanov, Mario Ferraro · Slap, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 3:53SJSMarc-Edouard VlasicAssists: Anthony Duclair, Mikael Granlund · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–2
- P2 6:20SJSKevin LabancAssists: Mario Ferraro, Mike Hoffman · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–2
- P2 7:11OTTBrady TkachukAssists: Drake Batherson, Tim Stützle · Snap, 0.06 xG3–3
- P2 12:59OTTDrake BathersonAssists: Artem Zub, Tim Stützle · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–4
- P3 16:56SJSFilip ZadinaAssists: Tomas Hertl, Mario Ferraro · Slap, 0.12 xG4–4
- P3 19:55OTTVladimir TarasenkoGWGAssists: Artem Zub, Tim Stützle · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–5
Penalties (4)
- P1 13:30OTTRidly Greig: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:02OTTDrake Batherson: Holding2 min
- P2 14:36SJSAnthony Duclair: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:51SJSJan Rutta: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stützle won the faceoff against Granlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- Bailey – Kunin – Barabanov8:50
xG 0.27–0.59 (32%)attempts 9–15goals 0–1
- Granlund – Duclair – Eklund13:48
xG 0.31–0.75 (30%)attempts 4–23goals 1–1
- Hoffman – Carpenter – Labanc7:49
xG 0.14–0.63 (18%)attempts 3–15goals 1–1
- Hertl – Zetterlund – Zadina12:07
xG 0.12–0.73 (14%)attempts 5–15goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestRutta – Thrun14:14
xG 1.02–0.40 (72%)attempts 12–14goals 0–1
- Ferraro – Rutta2:04
xG 0.12–0.05 (70%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Ferraro – Addison2:23
xG 0.04–0.26 (14%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Tkachuk – Greig12:33
xG 0.77–0.08 (91%)attempts 20–5goals 1–0
- Kubalik – Chartier – Joseph9:30
xG 0.42–0.07 (86%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Tarasenko – Batherson – Stützle12:53
xG 1.08–0.92 (54%)attempts 28–10goals 3–3
- MacEwen – Kastelic – Kelly6:16
xG 0.38–0.25 (60%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSanderson – Zub16:55
xG 1.02–0.17 (86%)attempts 28–7goals 3–0
- Chabot – Chychrun16:34
xG 1.09–1.03 (51%)attempts 28–13goals 1–3
- Hamonic – Brannstrom13:39
xG 0.63–0.62 (50%)attempts 17–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).