Sat, Jan 13, 2024·Amerant Bank Arena, Sunrise
New Jersey Devils 4, Florida Panthers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 212 | 15 | 15 | 422 |
| FLA | 07 | 113 | 016 | 136 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:50NJDAlexander HoltzAssists: Simon Nemec, Curtis Lazar · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 14:45NJDJesper BrattGWGAssists: Michael McLeod · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–0
- P2 3:51NJDErik HaulaAssists: Nico Hischier · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–0
- P2 19:27FLASam ReinhartPPAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Brandon Montour · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–1
- P3 19:41NJDJohn MarinoENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.77 xG4–1
Penalties (4)
- P2 17:32NJDColin Miller: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 8:30FLACarter Verhaeghe: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:36FLAAleksander Barkov: Holding2 min
- P3 14:27NJDKevin Bahl: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hischier won the faceoff against Bennett
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestTierney – Lazar – Holtz8:31
xG 0.35–0.07 (83%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Willman – Bastian – Bowers5:49
xG 0.29–0.34 (46%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Bratt – McLeod12:01
xG 0.24–0.33 (42%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
- Haula – Hischier – Mercer13:05
xG 0.07–0.75 (8%)attempts 4–20goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSmith – Nemec13:26
xG 0.40–0.25 (61%)attempts 9–11goals 2–0
- Miller – Bahl11:40
xG 0.34–0.65 (34%)attempts 10–17goals 1–0
- Marino – Hughes16:46
xG 0.35–0.70 (34%)attempts 9–18goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBarkov – Reinhart – Rodrigues13:27
xG 0.74–0.22 (77%)attempts 26–7goals 0–2
- Stenlund – Lockwood – Gadjovich5:52
xG 0.45–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Lomberg – Luostarinen – Lundell8:21
xG 0.12–0.01 (89%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Verhaeghe – Bennett – Tkachuk12:46
xG 0.59–0.81 (42%)attempts 15–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEkblad – Forsling19:37
xG 1.18–0.22 (84%)attempts 35–7goals 0–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Kulikov11:28
xG 0.37–0.53 (41%)attempts 8–12goals 0–2
- Montour – Mikkola12:24
xG 0.26–0.50 (34%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).