Sat, Jan 13, 2024·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Pittsburgh Penguins 2, Carolina Hurricanes 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 010 | 016 | 214 | 00 | 240 |
| CAR | 216 | 08 | 010 | 11 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:12CARBrett PesceAssists: Sebastian Aho, Andrei Svechnikov · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 9:04CARJordan MartinookAssists: Jalen Chatfield · Snap, 0.35 xG0–2
- P3 6:45PITJake GuentzelAssists: Sidney Crosby, Bryan Rust · Snap, 0.11 xG1–2
- P3 19:07PITBryan RustAssists: Erik Karlsson, Kris Letang · Snap, 0.05 xG2–2
- OT 1:41CARBrett PesceGWGAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Seth Jarvis · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 14:51CARBrent Burns: Slashing2 min
- P1 15:02PITErik Karlsson: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:41CARJordan Martinook: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:41PITBryan Rust: Cross checking2 min
- P2 9:46PITPierre-Olivier Joseph: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:33CARAndrei Svechnikov: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:15CARAndrei Svechnikov: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 18:48CARMichael Bunting: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 12:33PITJake Guentzel: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Aho
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Rust – Guentzel5:15
xG 0.44–0.26 (63%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Malkin – Rust – O'Connor8:23
xG 0.42–0.31 (58%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
- Carter – Eller – Harkins2:22
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Malkin – Rakell – O'Connor3:47
xG 0.09–0.24 (27%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Karlsson – Ruhwedel2:15
xG 0.14–0.13 (52%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Ruhwedel – Joseph2:41
xG 0.00–0.04 (7%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Letang – Pettersson16:24
xG 1.00–1.05 (49%)attempts 25–17goals 1–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Martinook – Jarvis11:03
xG 1.08–0.34 (76%)attempts 15–8goals 1–0
- Noesen – Bunting – Kotkaniemi8:54
xG 0.39–0.09 (81%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Teravainen – Aho – Svechnikov12:14
xG 1.15–0.85 (57%)attempts 17–19goals 1–1
- Fast – Lemieux – Drury4:53
xG 0.43–0.24 (65%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Slavin14:22
xG 1.39–0.47 (75%)attempts 21–14goals 0–0
- Orlov – Chatfield13:10
xG 0.98–0.10 (91%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Skjei – Pesce14:13
xG 0.69–1.21 (36%)attempts 11–23goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).