Sat, Jan 13, 2024·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Anaheim Ducks 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 011 | 15 | 04 | 120 |
| TBL | 011 | 314 | 216 | 541 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:09TBLVictor HedmanPPAssists: Steven Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov · Slap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 10:56TBLSteven StamkosPPGWGAssists: Brayden Point, Nikita Kucherov · Snap, 0.16 xG0–2
- P2 13:20ANAFrank VatranoPPAssists: Cam Fowler, Ryan Strome · Slap, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 14:47TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Darren Raddysh · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–3
- P3 9:06TBLCalvin de HaanUnassisted · Wrist, 0.00 xG1–4
- P3 18:05TBLBrandon HagelAssists: Nick Paul, Nick Perbix · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–5
Penalties (11)
- P2 4:06ANARoss Johnston: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 4:06TBLAustin Watson: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 4:06ANARoss Johnston: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:11ANAFrank Vatrano: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 12:59ANARoss Johnston: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 12:59TBLVictor Hedman: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 12:59TBLVictor Hedman: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:59TBLVictor Hedman: Misconduct10 min
- P2 14:08ANABo Groulx: Cross checking2 min
- P3 0:45TBLEmil Lilleberg: Cross checking2 min
- P3 4:31TBLGage Goncalves: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cirelli won the faceoff against McTavish
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Vatrano – Lundeström2:06
xG 0.36–0.05 (87%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Lundeström – Groulx – Leason4:30
xG 0.05–0.01 (79%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Silfverberg – Carrick – Johnston6:58
xG 0.14–0.27 (34%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Henrique – Strome – Terry9:47
xG 0.17–0.65 (21%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Hagg – Lyubushkin10:55
xG 0.24–0.65 (27%)attempts 7–14goals 0–2
- Gudas – LaCombe15:47
xG 0.66–1.37 (33%)attempts 15–21goals 0–0
- Fowler – Vaakanainen21:54
xG 0.36–1.26 (22%)attempts 13–23goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestPaul – Cirelli – Hagel12:16
xG 0.95–0.10 (90%)attempts 17–8goals 2–0
- Stamkos – Kucherov – Point15:47
xG 1.26–0.98 (56%)attempts 19–14goals 0–0
- Motte – Sheary – Goncalves8:06
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Watson – Glendening – Eyssimont4:59
xG 0.02–0.14 (12%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestde Haan – Perbix14:25
xG 1.10–0.15 (88%)attempts 18–10goals 1–0
- Perbix – Lilleberg5:40
xG 0.36–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–0goals 0–0
- de Haan – Crozier3:20
xG 0.27–0.02 (93%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).